Reading QUAD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QUAD free→Reading QUAD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track QUAD free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.48 QUAD trades at 7× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.20 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$119.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$428.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,330.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Quad's financial health and operational performance. Investors will look for signs of growth or challenges.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline or flat growth year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for QUAD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On April 28, 2026, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
QUAD Quad/Graphics, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Quad aims to keep capital expenditures within the range of $55 million to $65 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Quad aims to reach a net debt leverage ratio of approximately 1.5x by the end of 2026.
Quad aims to generate free cash flow between $40 million and $60 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a positive shift in the sector. This could improve investor confidence in Quad's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth for the industrial sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact demand for Quad's services. Strong sales may indicate a healthy market environment.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Dave Honan as President of the Company, in addition to his current role as Chief Operating Officer. Joel Quadracci, who has served as President and CEO of the Company since 2006 and Chairman, President and CEO since 2010, will continue as Chairman and CEO.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 17, 2026, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On October 28, 2025, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On July 29, 2025, Quad/Graphics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.