Reading PTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTC free→Reading PTC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PTC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which is favorable for PTC. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 PTC trades at 12× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $179 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $170–$198. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.57 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 7 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 91.1% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$354.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,750.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift from a favorable to a mild favorable outlook. Risk rose, suggesting an increase in uncertainty regarding the stock. Earnings quality remains fragile, which may reflect concerns about the company's financial stability. The macro backdrop is currently favorable, which could provide some support for the stock.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Updates will explain the company's growth outlook and affect how investors feel.
Confirms:Revenue guidance for FY'26 is higher than current expectations.
Disproves:Revenue guidance for FY'26 is lowered or remains unchanged.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PTC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, PTC Inc. announced results for its second quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Section 7 - Regulation FD
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$170.00 – $198.00 (median $185.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PTC PTC Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PTC is focusing on its Intelligent Product Lifecycle vision to drive growth and customer engagement.
PTC is executing a share repurchase program targeting $1.225 billion to $1.325 billion in FY'26.
PTC has set revenue guidance for FY'26 between $2,580 million and $2,820 million.
PTC completed the divestiture of its Kepware and ThingWorx businesses to an affiliate of TPG.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows strong demand. It also shows good execution after selling parts of the business.
Confirms:Q3 revenue reported at or above $580 million.
Disproves:Q3 revenue reported below $580 million.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback shows that management is confident and has spending plans.
Confirms:Management says they are making good progress on the $2 billion buyback.
Disproves:Management says there are delays or cuts in the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Updates will explain how the sale affects future growth and profits.
Confirms one read:Management shares good news about growth after the sale.
Confirms the other:Management says the sale has hurt growth.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows a promise to return cash to shareholders.
Confirms:Company reports $250 million in share repurchases for Q2.
Disproves:Share buybacks were below $250 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth shows strong customer demand and a good strategy.
Confirms:ARR growth reported at or above 8% for Q3.
Disproves:ARR growth reported below 8% for Q3.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 4, 2026, the PTC Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $2.0 billion of PTC common stock in the period October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2028, and amended the existing share repurchase authorization announced on November 6, 2024 to now expire on September 30, 2026. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 16, 2026, PTC announced that it has closed the previously announced divestiture of its Kepware and ThingWorx businesses to an affiliate of TPG, and updated its Q2'26 and FY'26 guidance and share repurchase expectations to reflect the effect of the divestiture and use of proceeds therefrom. A copy of the press release detailing those items is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. PTC will host a conference call to discuss the divestiture and updated guidance at…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, PTC Inc. announced results for its first quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 4, 2025, PTC Inc. announced the November 30, 2025 appointment of Jennifer DiRico as the Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer of PTC, effective as of January 1, 2026. Ms. DiRico has served as the Chief Financial Officer at Commvault Systems, Inc., a cyber resilience company, since August 2024. Before that, Ms. DiRico served…