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Track PTC free→PTC Inc. (PTC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$114.85+1.03%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which is favorable for PTC. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $13.13B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$177.87consensus
Range $133.06 – $213.71
vs price: -34% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$155.60consensus
Range $135.43 – $212.00
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $115 PTC trades at 12× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $179 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $170–$198. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
11.8x
peer 21.2x · own history 28.6x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
-36%
our forecast 25%
Our fair value
$178.93
range $130.42 – $215.27
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
73rd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
17th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish17 analysts, 68% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.57 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 7 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 91.1% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$354.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,750.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 16, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift from a favorable to a mild favorable outlook. Risk rose, suggesting an increase in uncertainty regarding the stock. Earnings quality remains fragile, which may reflect concerns about the company's financial stability. The macro backdrop is currently favorable, which could provide some support for the stock.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance updates on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Updates will explain the company's growth outlook and affect how investors feel.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue guidance for FY'26 is higher than current expectations.
Disproves:Revenue guidance for FY'26 is lowered or remains unchanged.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PTC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PTC and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting PTC and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PTC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PTC cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping PTC and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, PTC Inc. announced results for its second quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Section 7 - Regulation FD
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.