Reading PEGA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major tech companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 PEGA trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 11% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.43 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 6 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 154.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$479.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,140.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A significant drop in revenue would signal ongoing challenges in growth and demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 total revenue reported below $386 million, which is a 10% decline from Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 2026 total revenue remains stable or grows year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New development indicates strategic growth and operational focus.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PEGA Pegasystems | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing Annual Contract Value (ACV) through Pega Cloud and AI initiatives.
Increase free cash flow through operational efficiency and strategic investments.
Improve operating margins through cost management and revenue growth.
Management aims to drive revenue growth as a key strategic priority.
Management is focused on enhancing operating income through cost management.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows that management is making progress. The company is bouncing back from recent drops.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds a 5% increase compared to Q1's $429.9M.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains flat or declines compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue, income, and cash flow. It is crucial for assessing progress.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows positive trends in revenue and income.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing drops in important financial numbers.
Why it matters: The ACV growth rate is a key indicator of Pega's market position and demand for its services. It reflects overall business health.
Confirms:ACV growth rate exceeds 15% year over year.
Disproves:ACV growth rate is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show if ACV growth and cash flow targets are met. It is key for understanding Pega's financial health.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 ACV growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 ACV growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good health. It helps with future growth investments.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported above $200 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $150 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: AI investment insights will show Pega's position and future growth.
Confirms one read:Management says AI investments made money in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Management talks about issues with AI investment results in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This shows the company is fixing its profit problems.
Confirms:Q2 operating income rose to over $50M. This is up from Q1's $37.1M.
Disproves:Operating income stays below $37.1M in Q2.
Why it matters: A rise in ACV shows strong demand for Pega's cloud solutions and growth potential.
Confirms:Pega Cloud ACV increases more than 15% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Pega Cloud ACV growth falls below 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating margins mean lower costs and more profit. This is key for future growth.
Confirms:Operating margins improve to 22% or higher in 2026.
Disproves:Operating margins are below 18% in 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow growth is important for returns. It shows the company's financial health. It also shows how well management is following their plan.
Confirms:Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is confirmed at $575M or higher.
Disproves:Free cash flow guidance for 2026 is revised down below $500M.
and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 9, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of Pegasystems Inc. (the “Company”) approved the 2026 Section 16 Officer/ALT Member Corporate Incentive Compensation Plan (the “Incentive Plan”) for the executive officers of the Company (the “Executive Officers”). The Incentive Plan covers the period from January 1, 2026 thro…
OTHER EVENTS On February 10, 2026 , Pegasystems Inc. announced an expansion of its current share repurchase program. Under this expansion, the expiration date of the current repurchase program has been extended from June 30, 2026 to June 30, 2027, and the amount of its common stock that Pegasystems is authorized to repurchase has been increased by $1 billion.
and the Exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.