Pegasystems (PEGA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.42-0.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pegasystems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-9.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.62 → 2.37 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	543.4M
EPS	—	0.912
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	453.43M
EPS	—	0.549
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.79B
EPS	—	2.075
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.9B
EPS	—	2.374

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Pega Cloud Annual Contract Value growth	Pegasystems grows cloud contract value 29% yearly.	Under Pressure	ACV growth falls below 20% YoY next year	Pega Cloud revenue: $213.934M FY2026-Q2; reported segment. Published target: >= $907M ACV. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 21, 2026213,934,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source Pega Cloud · reported segment FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow exceeds $200 million	Free cash flow exceeds $200 million.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $200M next year	Free cash flow: $80.248M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200M FCF. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 21, 202680,248,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of 4 supplied transcript quarters. Cash provided by operating activities was $304.299 million for the first nine months of 2026, compared with $346.796 million for the same period in 2025; Q2 reported first-half operating and free cash flow each above $285 million. The nine-month cash flow comparison is declining, so despite the longer-term $700 million or more 2028 free cash flow commitment, current-year progress is limited. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improvement	A supporting condition in Pegasystems's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $80M.	Broken	Operating income stays below $50M next year	Diluted EPS: $0.08 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $80M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 20, 20260.08 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0ac424d5-0ae5-4e2e-aa8d-20d4b0c59277. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.37

$2.99 → $2.37 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.90B

$2.20B → $1.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.99	$2,196,962,220	12 / 11
2026-07-25	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-07-26	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.64	$2,059,147,520	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-07-29	$2.64	$2,059,147,520	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.64	$2,059,147,520	7 / 9
2026-07-31	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-01	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-08-03	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-04	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-06	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-07	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$2.64	$2,062,348,080	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.64	$2,059,147,239	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$2.60	$2,037,541,378	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$2.60	$2,037,541,378	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	5 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	5 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	5 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.62	$2,029,763,600	5 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.61	$2,027,598,934	5 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.61	$2,027,597,378	5 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.61	$2,027,597,378	5 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.61	$2,027,597,378	5 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.60	$2,020,364,045	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.60	$2,020,030,711	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.60	$2,008,826,442	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.60	$2,008,826,442	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.60	$2,008,826,442	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.60	$2,011,001,420	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.60	$2,011,001,420	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.60	$2,011,001,420	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.60	$2,011,001,420	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.42	$1,909,334,689	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.37	$1,899,690,142	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$2.37	$1,899,690,142	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	0
2026-06-01	12	0
2026-07-01	12	4
2026-08-01	8	5
2026-09-01	7	6
2026-10-01	4	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 22 · prior Jul 23

$35.00 → $40.00+14.3%

D.A. DavidsonOct 22 · prior Jul 24

$32.00 → $35.00+9.4%

BarclaysOct 22 · prior Oct 13

$43.00 → $42.00-2.3%

Rosenblatt SecuritiesOct 21 · prior Jul 23

$47.00 → $43.00-8.5%

$0$25.85$51.70

2 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Pega Cloud Annual Contract Value growthPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow exceeds $200 millionFree cash flow: $80.248M
Operating income improvementPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-61.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pegasystems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PEGA is a software growth business with a long-term focus on recurring cloud revenue and AI. Its thesis state is intact, but the latest signal has turned cautious after three consecutive earnings misses, and risk is high.

What's priced into Pegasystems

The valuation evidence is mixed: PEGA is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a sizable premium to them. The expectations gap is negative, which points to limited room for execution to fall short of what the market assumes; fragility is rated low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, Pega Cloud growth and the focus on AI support the ACV growth plan, but total ACV growth slowed to 6% in Q3 2026. Near-term results are less reassuring: operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2026 was below the same period a year earlier, and recent earnings misses raise the risk of weaker guidance.

What Pegasystems hinges on

The thesis depends on whether Pega Cloud and AI can help restore stronger total ACV growth while management advances its cash-flow goals. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from sector peers or lower interest rates could provide a more supportive backdrop.