Reading PD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PD free→Reading PD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PD free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, PD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This means it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile, which can indicate a value-trap pattern. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.96 PD trades at 3× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 67% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.31 (-4.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.1% above current price.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 33.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$233.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$539.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could hurt PagerDuty's performance. This is key for understanding the overall market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median in the next quarterly update.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median in the next quarterly update.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 28, 2026, PagerDuty, Inc. (the "Company") reported financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference. The press release is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PD PagerDuty, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: This report will show if PagerDuty can grow revenue in a slowing sector. Investors will look for signs of growth or decline.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth falls below 0% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, PagerDuty, Inc. (the “ Company ”) announced the appointment of John DiLullo as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer (“ CEO ”), effective May 11, 2026 (the “ Appointment Date ”). In connection with the Company’s planned leadership transition, Jennifer Tejada, who has served as the CEO of the Company since 2016, will cease to serve…
Other Events On May 27, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of common stock (the “2026 Share Repurchase Program”), subject to certain limitations and conditions. The 2026 Share Repurchase Program replaces the Company’s prior $100 million share repurchase program, which was authorized by the Company’s Board of Directors in May 2024 and completed in November 2024 and the $150 million share repurchase program, which was authorized b…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission made by the Company, whether made before o…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 1, 2026, PagerDuty, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Transition Agreement (the “Transition Agreement”) with Owen Howard Wilson, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and principal financial officer (the “CFO”), in connection with his retirement that was previously disclosed in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the U…