PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$13.58+1.95%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
PagerDuty grows revenue steadily to about $493 million in fiscal 2027. EPS rises to around $1.30 per share. The company has a $100 million share buyback program. Profit margins and growth remain on track despite recent market pullbacks.
Growth may slow as recent EPS misses and soft guidance show challenges. Management changes and volatile execution raise risks. The stock trades cheap for a reason, reflecting high risk and fragile quality.
The price is about 39% below our fair value near $17. Analysts expect just 1% revenue growth, which is conservative versus company guidance. Our view is more optimistic on growth and EPS.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.27 in fiscal 2027
Increase and maintain non-GAAP net income per diluted share guidance for fiscal year 2027.
EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 has been stated in 3 of last 3 quarters with an upward revision from $1.23-$1.28 to $1.27-$1.32. Actual diluted EPS fluctuated, with $0.10 in 2026-Q1 and $0.06 in 2027-Q2, reflecting some volatility but management maintains an increased EPS guidance, indicating a positive trajectory.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making but has shown strong recent financial performance, indicating potential for future growth despite volatility in management and high risk.
The market appears to price PD as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may already be factoring in some level of risk and uncertainty regarding future performance.
Management has prioritized revenue growth and has provided stable guidance for fiscal 2027. While there is a slight upward revision in EPS guidance, actual earnings have shown volatility, which could impact future performance.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the potential for favorable economic conditions if the Fed cuts rates, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence PD's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 17.2 points (from 34.2 to 51.4).
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. PagerDuty reported a strong earnings beat. It also provided revenue guidance for Q3 that is below consensus. The company is undergoing a leadership transition to a new CEO. This change may impact operational execution and talent retention.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“For the full fiscal year 2027, PagerDuty expects Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $1.33 - $1.37.”
“PagerDuty expects Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $1.27 - $1.32 for fiscal year 2027, up from $1.23 - $1.28.”
“The Company expects Non-GAAP net income per diluted share of $1.23 - $1.28 for the full fiscal year.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $488.5 million in fiscal 2027
Maintain and achieve revenue growth targets for fiscal year 2027 as guided in multiple quarters.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew modestly from $243.2 million in first half 2026 to $245.4 million in first half 2027. Management has consistently guided full fiscal year 2027 revenue between $488.5 million and $496.5 million, showing a stable trajectory aligned with stated growth expectations.
“For the full fiscal year 2027, PagerDuty currently expects total revenue of $491.5 million - $496.5 million.”
“For the full fiscal year 2027, PagerDuty currently expects total revenue of $488.5 million - $496.5 million, consistent with previous guidance.”
“The Company expects full fiscal year total revenue of $488.5 million to $496.5 million.”
Breaks if: No meaningful buyback activity by end of fiscal 2027
Execute the $100 million share repurchase program authorized in May 2026 to return capital to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized a $100 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q1, replacing prior completed programs. The company repurchased $72.9 million of common stock in the first half of fiscal 2027, showing active execution of the program and delivering on capital allocation priorities.
“Announced $100 million share repurchase program.”
“Board authorized a share repurchase program for up to $100 million of common stock.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PD's trajectory will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.