PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.49+1.51%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PagerDuty, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.47 → 1.47 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-10-31
Revenue	—	124.19M
EPS	—	0.357
Annual ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	494.55M
EPS	—	1.356
Annual ending 2028-01-31
Revenue	—	508.27M
EPS	—	1.468

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Non-GAAP EPS reaches at least $1.27 in fiscal 2027	A primary condition in PagerDuty, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.27 in fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context EPS guidance for fiscal 2027 has been stated in 3 of last 3 quarters with an upward revision from $1.23-$1.28 to $1.27-$1.32. Actual diluted EPS fluctuated, with $0.10 in 2026-Q1 and $0.06 in 2027-Q2, reflecting some volatility but management maintains an increased EPS guidance, indicating a positive trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $488.5 million in fiscal 2027	PagerDuty grows revenue steadily to about $493 million in fiscal 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $488.5 million in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $124.436M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $488.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026124,436,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0fd05eef-079c-4fe4-a57b-9124d5fbb653. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew modestly from $243.2 million in first half 2026 to $245.4 million in first half 2027. Management has consistently guided full fiscal year 2027 revenue between $488.5 million and $496.5 million, showing a stable trajectory aligned with stated growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete $100 million share repurchase program	The company has a $100 million share buyback program.	Intact	No meaningful buyback activity by end of fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board authorized a $100 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q1, replacing prior completed programs. The company repurchased $72.9 million of common stock in the first half of fiscal 2027, showing active execution of the program and delivering on capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.47

Unavailable → $1.47 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$0.51B

$0.51B → $0.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$508,246,919	4 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$508,246,919	4 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$508,244,136	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$508,270,564	4 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.47	$508,270,564	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	5	1
2026-06-01	3	5	1
2026-07-01	3	5	2
2026-08-01	3	4	2
2026-09-01	3	4	2
2026-10-01	3	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP EPS reaches at least $1.27 in fiscal 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $488.5 million in fiscal 2027Revenue: $124.436M
Complete $100 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 24, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PagerDuty, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk software growth business with a recent improvement in financial performance, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though the company remains loss-making and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into PagerDuty, Inc.

PD is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing assessment says expectations are broadly justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to a clear case that the market is overlooking strong fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent performance has been strong: momentum improved, an earnings beat was reported, and first-half revenue edged higher year over year. Management has kept fiscal 2027 revenue guidance stable and raised EPS guidance, but actual diluted EPS has fluctuated; revenue growth is modest and losses remain a concern.

What PagerDuty, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining its guidance and delivering steadier earnings. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while continued strength from major software peers or lower interest rates could support the sector backdrop. Recent peer misses and a deep miss in PD’s history remain risks despite a low near-term miss assessment.