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PAR Technology Corp. (PAR)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$15.48+5.38%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 186% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If PAR cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $605.91M
- Employees
- 150,000
- IPO date
- 1995-04-26
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-07
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$5.40consensus
Range $5.33 – $19.74
vs price: +186% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$52.74consensus
Range $52.74 – $52.74
vs price: -71% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $15 PAR trades at 60× p/e — 2.8× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $5.46 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $16–$25. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
59.6x
peer 21.2x · own history —
Premium
2.8x peer
Growth the price needs
173%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$5.46
range $5.37 – $16.15
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 173% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
23rd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.35x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 analysts, 73% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.11 (+1.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$314.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$702.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,341.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth results on August 7
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for PAR. Results will show if they are on track.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PAR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PAR and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting PAR and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PAR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PAR cuts guidance on the next call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping PAR and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, PAR Technology Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release to report its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this current report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 .
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.