Reading OXM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OXM free→Reading OXM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OXM free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel ManufacturingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company is currently unprofitable, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with OXM trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If OXM cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 OXM trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $32–$44. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.36x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.45 → $1.34 (-7.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$202.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$505.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,735.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 48.9 points (from -73.9 to -25.0).
Valuation fell by 13.3 points (from 52.6 to 39.3).
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is following its budget. It also shows a focus on making money.
Confirms:Capital spending is $60 million or less for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending is more than $60 million for fiscal 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
CEO buying stock indicates confidence in future performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 10, 2026, Oxford Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the fiscal 2026 first quarter ended May 2, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$32.00 – $44.00 (median $40.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OXM Oxford Industries, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | elevated |
NKE Nike, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TPR Tapestry, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
LULU Lululemon Athletica | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing profitability through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Reduce capital expenditures to $60 million, focusing on completing key projects.
Enhance supply chain resilience and diversify sourcing to mitigate risks.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how sales and profits are doing. This is key for understanding the company's health.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This range shows how well the company is handling sales during tough times. Meeting or beating this range shows strength.
Confirms:Q2 net sales reported within the range of $380 million to $400 million.
Disproves:Q2 net sales fall below $380 million.
Why it matters: The consumer price index shows inflation trends. High inflation can hurt consumer spending.
Confirms:CPI shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:CPI shows a decrease below 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it may signal a sector shift. This could hurt Oxford's performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: CPI data affects how much people spend and inflation. This impacts Oxford's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI data shows inflation is lower than expected. This helps increase consumer spending.
Confirms the other:CPI data shows inflation is higher than expected. This leads to less consumer spending.
Why it matters: Improvement at Lilly Pulitzer is important for the company's overall success. It shows that a key brand is recovering.
Confirms:Lilly Pulitzer sales increased compared to last year in Q2.
Disproves:Lilly Pulitzer sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: A stable gross margin means good cost management and pricing. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Gross margin reported above 62% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 60% in Q2.
Why it matters: Retail sales data will indicate consumer spending trends. This affects Oxford's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows decline below -1% month over month.
Advances: Improve profitability in fiscal 2026
Earnings call highlights profitability improvements.
Threatens: Improve profitability in fiscal 2026
Lowered sales outlook may hinder profitability goals.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 26, 2026, Oxford Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing, among other things, its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of S…