Reading OLPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLPX free→Reading OLPX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OLPX free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 117% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact OLPX's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.04 OLPX trades at 34× p/e — 2.2× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.94 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $1.40–$2.50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 117% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.61x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $0.02 (-15.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$49.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$588.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,988.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it means more people want Olaplex products.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OLPX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, the United States District Court for the Central District of California granted preliminary approval of the settlement in the stockholder derivative action captioned In re Olaplex Holdings, Inc. Stockholder Derivative Litigation, Lead Case No. 2:23-cv-09712-SVW-SK (the “Settlement”). The Settlement resolves all claims that were or could have been asserted in the derivative litigation and the books and records demand made by stockholder Kajeel Patel pursuant to 8…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$1.40 – $2.50 (median $2.03) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OLPX Olaplex Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 between $414 million and $435 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue for 2026 is guided between $414 million and $435 million. Current revenue for 2026-Q1 is $99.369 million, showing limited progress towards the annual target.
“For Fiscal 2026: (Dollars in millions) 2026 2025 Actual Net Sales $414 - $435 $423”
“The Company is reiterating guidance for net sales for fiscal year 2025, as initially disclosed by the Company on March 4, 2025.”
Maintain gross margin guidance for fiscal year 2026 between 71% and 72%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross margin for 2026 is guided between 71% and 72%. Current gross profit for 2026-Q1 is $71.66 million, indicating limited progress towards the margin target.
“Adjusted Gross Profit Margin* 71% to 72%”
“The Company is reiterating guidance for adjusted gross profit margin for fiscal year 2025.”
Maintain operating margin guidance for fiscal year 2026 between 21% and 22%.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating margin for 2026 is guided between 21% and 22%. Current operating income for 2026-Q1 is -$5.111 million, indicating a negative trajectory towards the margin target.
“Adjusted EBITDA Margin* 21% to 22%”
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On March 26, 2026, Olaplex Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) by and among the Company, Henkel US Operations Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and Margot Acquisition Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned Subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release in connection with the transaction. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 , is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into the fil…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“The Company is reiterating guidance for adjusted EBITDA margin for fiscal year 2025.”