Reading OI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OI free→Reading OI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OI free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, OI trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.99 OI trades at 12× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $13–$14. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.51 → $0.31 (-40.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$429.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,244.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for financial health. It shows if management is doing well.
Confirms:Operating income is getting better. It is moving closer to making money.
Disproves:Operating income is still going down or stays negative.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into A Material Definitive Agreement. On May 18, 2026, Owens-Brockway Glass Container Inc. (“OBGC”), a Delaware corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of O-I Glass, Inc. (“O-I Glass”), completed a private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 9.500% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”) to eligible purchasers under Rule 144A and Regulation S of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). The Notes are fully and unconditionally guar…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$13.00 – $14.00 (median $14.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OI O-I Glass, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to drive cost savings and operational improvements through the Fit to Win initiative.
Utilize debt issuance to manage capital allocation and refinance existing obligations.
Focus on developing strategic partnerships to enhance market position and growth.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if O-I Glass is making more money and cutting costs.
Confirms:Q2 earnings show that operating income is better than in Q1.
Disproves:Q2 earnings show a decline in operating income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: New partnerships could boost growth and offset recent financial losses. This is key for future performance.
Confirms:New partnerships announced will help increase revenue.
Disproves:No new partnerships were announced. This shows a lack of growth.
Why it matters: Details on how O-I Glass uses the $500 million debt could impact its financial health and growth plans.
Confirms one read:A clear plan on how the $500 million debt will be allocated to growth initiatives.
Confirms the other:No clear plan or negative commentary on the debt's impact on operations.
Why it matters: New partnerships could help O-I Glass grow and improve its market position. This is key for future revenue.
Confirms:Look for news about a new partnership with financial details.
Disproves:No new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for O-I Glass and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2 percent.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Better sales in Europe are key for the company's overall success. This shows recovery in a tough market.
Confirms:European sales volumes rise by at least 5% from last quarter.
Disproves:European sales volumes drop more or stay the same.
Why it matters: Saving more money from this plan can help profits and balance rising costs. This shows good cost management.
Confirms:Fit to Win initiative reports savings of $50 million or more in the next quarter.
Disproves:Fit to Win initiative reports savings below $35 million.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 28, 2026, O-I Glass, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
is for informational purposes only and shall not constitute a notice of redemption for the 2027 OBGC Notes or an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the 2027 OBGC Notes, the Notes or the guarantees, nor shall there be any sale of the Notes and the guarantees in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state. The information contained in this Item 7.01, inc…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On March 3, 2026, O-I Glass, Inc. (the “Company”) made an organizational change under which Arnaud Aujouannet will no longer serve as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, effective March 4, 2026. Mr. Aujouannet remains a non-executive employee of the Company on “garden leave” and is entitled to receive continua…