O-I Glass, Inc. (OI)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.47+0.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge O-I Glass, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-7.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.50 → 1.39 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	0.151
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	6.36B
EPS	—	0.469
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	6.5B
EPS	—	1.394

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt via refinancing and capital allocation	A supporting condition in O-I Glass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is successful refinancing of $500 million debt.	Recovered	failure to refinance $500 million debt by 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EPS recovers to guidance range	A primary condition in O-I Glass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $1.00 and $1.50.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fit to Win initiative delivers cost savings	O-I Glass aims to improve profits through its Fit to Win cost savings program.	Under Pressure	cost savings fall below $275 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow improves to positive range	The company targets $1.0 to $1.5 EPS in 2026 and $50 to $150 million free cash flow.	Broken	free cash flow falls below $50 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow at least $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026-1,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.39

$1.87 → $1.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.50B

$6.58B → $6.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-30	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.87	$6,581,228,090	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.50	$6,549,294,260	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$1.50	$6,549,260,928	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$1.51	$6,555,270,951	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$1.50	$6,552,604,284	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$1.50	$6,544,782,062	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$1.50	$6,544,782,062	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$1.50	$6,544,782,062	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.50	$6,544,782,062	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.50	$6,544,782,062	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.50	$6,543,237,884	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.50	$6,543,237,884	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.47	$6,535,458,374	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$1.45	$6,530,913,946	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$1.44	$6,527,325,057	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$1.42	$6,537,658,390	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$1.42	$6,537,658,390	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$1.39	$6,495,615,689	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$1.39	$6,495,615,689	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$1.39	$6,495,615,689	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	3	0
2026-06-01	7	2	0
2026-07-01	7	3	1
2026-08-01	6	4	1
2026-09-01	5	3	1
2026-10-01	5	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 15

$12.00 → $10.00-16.7%

RBC CapitalOct 13 · prior Aug 13

$8.00 → $7.00-12.5%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Jul 15

$13.00 → $8.00-38.5%

UBSOct 5

$6.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt via refinancing and capital allocationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EPS recovers to guidance rangePublished status: Broken
Fit to Win initiative delivers cost savingsPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow improves to positive rangePublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-66.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

O-I Glass, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a challenged industrial business with a turnaround-like element, not a proven durable compounder at present. The long-term thesis remains on watch: cost savings and debt progress are real, but recent performance is weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into O-I Glass, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: OI is described as cheap versus peers, while the peer comparison also shows a 0.49 premium and a negative expectations gap. The overall priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the snapshot does not establish that weak results or ongoing execution risks are fully reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and the July 2026 miss make another guidance cut a meaningful risk. Fit to Win savings are progressing, and debt management is on track, but Europe operating profit fell sharply year over year and its improvement path has been pushed out. Recent quality and momentum measures improved, though overall financial performance remains weak and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What O-I Glass, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether OI can keep delivering cost savings while improving Europe operations without further disruptions. A guidance cut would add pressure to an already weak earnings pattern; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could provide support, while misses or lower guidance could remove that sector tailwind.