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Norfolk Southern (NSC)
NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$310.76+0.15%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, although it has been capital-friendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
- Market cap
- $70.50B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $310.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$264.06consensus
Range $219.09 – $332.03
vs price: +18% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$283.56consensus
Range $245.99 – $321.59
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $310 NSC trades at 25× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median. Our $264 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $310–$360. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.3x
peer 26.4x · own history 21.6x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
18%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$264.00
range $216.11 – $325.76
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 18% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
57th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
47th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish18 analysts, 25% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.14 → $3.17 (+0.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$65.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$176.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,247.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on July 29
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving its revenue and profits.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings per share are over $2.65. This shows better performance.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings per share drop below $2.43. This shows weaker performance.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NSC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UNP, CSX, and WAB keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting NSC and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for NSC and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If NSC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2025-10-23), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like UNP, CSX, and WAB start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping NSC and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NSC and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangement of Certain Officers. Departure of Chief Operating Officer On May 31, 2026, John Orr, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer of Norfolk Southern Corporation (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention to resign from the Company for “good reason” on account of proposed changes in the Company’s operations that would result in a diminution of his duti…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.