Reading NATR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NATR free→Reading NATR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NATR free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although NATR trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Consumer Staples companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 NATR trades at 16× p/e — 1.3× the 13× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $18 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.29 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,921.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NATR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer On May 8, 2026, L. Shane Jones notified Nature’s Sunshine Products, Inc. (the “Company”) that he is resigning as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective June 5, 2026. As the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Jones also served as the Company’s Principal Financial Officer. Mr. Jones’ resignation was…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NATR Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Nature's Sunshine aims to achieve net sales between $500 and $515 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $122.9 million in 2026-Q1. The trajectory suggests progress towards the annual target, but further quarters will determine if the full-year guidance is met.
“Nature's Sunshine continues to expect 2026 net sales to range between $500 - $515 million.”
“the Company expects full year 2026 net sales to range between $500 - $515 million.”
Nature's Sunshine targets adjusted EBITDA between $50 and $54 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. While specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1 are not provided, the company maintains its guidance range. Progress towards this target will depend on subsequent quarters' performance.
“and adjusted EBITDA to range between $50 - $54 million.”
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The press release furnished herewith makes reference to non-GAAP financial information, which the Company's management believes assis…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, Nature’s Sunshine Products, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) and the shareholders of the Company approved the adoption of the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). With shareholder approval obtained, the Plan is effective as of May 6, 2026. Subject to adjustment in certain ci…
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The press release furnished herewith makes reference to non-GAAP financial information, which the Company's management believes assis…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On February 24, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Company approved an increase to the base salary of the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Mr. L. Shane Jones, from $478,400 to $492,752 which increase is effective March 8, 2026. On February 24, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Company appro…
“expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $50 - $54 million.”