Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.15-2.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	126.35M
EPS	—	0.28
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	495.7M
EPS	—	1.08
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	519.2M
EPS	—	1.23

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $50-$54 million in 2026	Profit targets are $50-$54 million adjusted EBITDA.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $47 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $50-$54 million in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4, revised down to $48-$52 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was $14.6 million in 2026-Q1 and $11.3 million in 2026-Q2, flat quarter-over-quarter. The trajectory shows management maintaining the target but lowering expectations, with adjusted EBITDA stable but not growing in Q2. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable financial leadership after CFO and CEO changes	A supporting condition in Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further major executive departures in next 4 quarters.	Under Pressure	Additional CFO or CEO departures occur within next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $500-$515 million	A primary condition in Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $500 million.	Broken	Revenue falls below $476 million in FY26	Revenue: $116.985M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $500 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026116,985,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ebff7765-a90d-413d-8fba-9aa0df5a40b0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Full year 2026 revenue guidance was initially $500-$515 million in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4, then revised down to $490-$500 million in 2026-Q2. Actual quarterly revenues were $122.9M in 2026-Q1 and $117.0M in 2026-Q2, showing mixed progress with a downward revision in guidance reflecting recent softness. The trajectory shows management adjusting expectations downward but maintaining revenue growth focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $50-$54 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain stable financial leadership after CFO and CEO changesPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 2026 revenue of $500-$515 millionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NATR is a small-cap consumer staples business with a value-oriented, execution-dependent multi-year view. The thesis is currently intact, and the signal has turned mildly favorable, but recent results and elevated risk make the evidence mixed rather than strong.

What's priced into Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.

NATR is described as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is considered justified rather than especially fragile. The evidence does not spell out the market’s specific expectations, so the expectations gap is difficult to characterize more precisely.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance have both been lowered, and the latest quarter missed; adjusted EBITDA was flat from the prior quarter. Digital sales grew 26% in Q2, but the full-year goals remain a mixed execution test, with a recent CFO transition adding uncertainty.

What Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. hinges on

A guidance increase next quarter would show a meaningful reversal after the recent reduction. Continued weakness in jobs data could raise recession concerns, while stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.