Reading NABL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NABL free→Reading NABL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NABL free→NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If NABL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.21 NABL trades at 8× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $9.68 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $5.25–$6.50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 67% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -8.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.10 (-15.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$673.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 5% growth would signal a slowdown in N-able's revenue momentum. This could raise concerns about market demand and competitive positioning.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is above 6% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NABL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, N-able, Inc. (“N-able”) issued a press release regarding, and will hold a conference call announcing, its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of N-able's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$5.25 – $6.50 (median $5.63) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NABL N-able, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving higher revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing gross profit through strategic pricing and cost control.
Why it matters: Gross profit growth indicates better pricing and cost control. This is vital for N-able's strategy.
Confirms:Gross profit increases to over $105M in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit stays below $105M in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows N-able is managing costs well. This is crucial for growth.
Confirms:Operating income is better than Q1 results.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and performance. Ann Johnson's exit raises worries.
Confirms:Announcement of a new board member with strong credentials.
Disproves:No new board member is named or more departures happen.
Why it matters: More use of AI features could help N-able compete better and increase revenue. AI is key in cybersecurity.
Confirms:Management reports big growth in AI product use or partnerships.
Disproves:Management says AI product use is slow or has problems.
Why it matters: Falling retention rates may show unhappy customers or more competition. This could hurt future revenue and growth.
Confirms:Retention rates are below 85%.
Disproves:Retention rates are above 85%.
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers. (b) Departure of Director On May 7, 2026, Ann Johnson notified N-able, Inc. (the “Company”) and its Board of Directors (the “Board”) of her decision, effective immediately, to resign from the Board and any committee of the Board on which she serves. Ms. Johnson’s resignation was not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies, or pra…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026, N-able, Inc. (“N-able”) issued a press release regarding, and will hold a conference call announcing, its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of N-able's press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…