N-able, Inc. (NABL)

NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.12+4.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge N-able, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	134.55M
EPS	—	0.104
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	540.84M
EPS	—	0.389
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	580.46M
EPS	—	0.433

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit grows beyond $101.9 million	Gross profit improved by $2.7M.	Intact	Gross profit falls below $99 million next year	Gross profit: $106.202M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $101.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026106,202,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b031bdd6-e858-4341-b44e-11d13fb0e8a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves beyond $12.5 million	Operating income rose $2.4M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $10 million next year	Operating income: $16.476M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202616,476,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b031bdd6-e858-4341-b44e-11d13fb0e8a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $556 million in 2026	A primary condition in N-able, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$556 million.	Improving	Revenue falls below $500 million in FY26	Revenue: $138.223M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$556 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026138,223,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b031bdd6-e858-4341-b44e-11d13fb0e8a5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.48 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.60B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.48	$602,682,670	6 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	2	1
2026-06-01	3	2	1
2026-07-01	3	2	1
2026-08-01	3	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	2	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit grows beyond $101.9 millionGross profit: $106.202M
Operating income improves beyond $12.5 millionOperating income: $16.476M
Revenue grows to about $556 million in 2026Revenue: $138.223M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

N-able, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NABL is a growth-oriented technology business with improving recent performance, but it is not yet a proven steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, while the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into N-able, Inc.

The evidence describes NABL as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning current expectations appear more cautious than the model’s assumptions. That valuation read has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and ARR growth remain management priorities, and revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin improved in the latest reported period. ARR growth was modest, while recent earnings were in line and a workforce reduction adds uncertainty; the near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though the company has missed in recent quarters.

What N-able, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on sustained revenue and ARR growth, continued margin discipline, and whether AI investment and partner-led growth produce measurable results. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while easier rates or strong results from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.