Reading MTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTG free→Reading MTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTG free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact MTG's performance compared to sector peers, where it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, RYAN, and FAF, which could influence the Financials sector momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 MTG trades at 8× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.76 (+0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$82.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$234.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,628.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show weaker performance. This can hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 2026 net income reported below $165 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net income remains at or above $165 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Company issued a press release on April 29, 2026 announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTG MGIC Investment Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
EWBC East West Bancorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
CG Carlyle Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | full | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | moderate |
UNM Unum | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
Focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet to navigate dynamic environments.
Continue executing reinsurance agreements to manage risk and enhance capital efficiency.
Why it matters: Inflation data affects how much people want mortgage insurance. It also changes market conditions.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a decrease month over month, indicating easing inflation.
Confirms the other:CPI shows an increase month over month, indicating rising inflation.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends can signal the health of the business and sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Good reinsurance agreements can boost the balance sheet. They also help with risk management.
Confirms:They finished new reinsurance agreements in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Failure to execute any new reinsurance agreements by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could hurt MGIC's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program may show management's belief in the company's worth.
Confirms:They announced more share buybacks beyond the $750 million allowed.
Disproves:No updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates can change mortgage rates. This also affects insurance demand.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by more than 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The Company issued a press release on February 2, 2026 announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.