MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.80+3.82%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MGIC Investment Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	299.56M
EPS	—	0.81
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	3.246
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	3.405

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $3.06 in FY26	A primary condition in MGIC Investment Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.06 USD per share.	Improving	EPS falls below $3.06 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.86 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.06 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.86 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1daf9853-7d4d-4a0c-8fdd-315ca14690cb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow yield near 11%	The company has a free cash flow yield of 11%, supporting financial strength.	Intact	FCF yield falls below 11%	Free cash flow yield: 11.63% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202611.63 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MTG:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio below peer median of 12.77	It trades at a low price-to-earnings ratio of 8.95, below peers at 12.77.	Intact	PE rises above 12.77 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 8.97x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 20268.972 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: MTG:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.30 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$3.30	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-04	$3.31	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-06	$3.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-09	$3.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-12	$3.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$3.43	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	4	1
2026-06-01	1	4	1
2026-07-01	1	4	1
2026-08-01	1	3	1
2026-09-01	1	4	1
2026-10-01	1	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $3.06 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.86 per share
Free cash flow yield near 11%Free cash flow yield: 11.63%
PE ratio below peer median of 12.77P/E (TTM): 8.97x

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MGIC Investment Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MTG is a value-oriented financial company with ongoing capital returns and risk management activity, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is on watch: management delivery has been stable, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into MGIC Investment Corporation

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear modest. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and fragility is low; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not indicate that expectations have become unusually demanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the near term, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and earnings surprises have been trending down despite recent earnings beats. Management has consistently returned capital and executed reinsurance agreements, while balance-sheet measures have been stable but the balance-sheet priority is rated mixed.

What MGIC Investment Corporation hinges on

For the multi-year thesis, continued balance-sheet strength, capital returns, and reinsurance execution matter. Near-term sector signals also matter: rate cuts could weigh on Financials, while continued earnings strength from FNF, FAF, and ACT could support sector momentum; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.