Reading MQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MQ free→Reading MQ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MQ free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, while risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, MQ is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If MQ cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.89 MQ trades at 3× p/s, below its 5× p/s peer median. Our $2.98 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 68.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.01 → $0.00 (-90.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 21% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$156.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,466.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions affect market conditions. They also change how investors feel about tech stocks.
Confirms one read:The FOMC raised interest rates. This caused a negative reaction in the market.
Confirms the other:FOMC holds rates steady or lowers them, leading to a positive market reaction.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MQ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Marqeta, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MQ Marqeta, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Marqeta aims to achieve a net revenue growth of 12-14% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $135.79M in 2024-Q4 to $165.798M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the 12-14% growth target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated guidance.
“Net Revenue Growth 12 - 14% for 2026.”
“Full Year 2026 Net Revenue Growth 12 - 14%.”
Marqeta is targeting a gross profit growth of 10-12% for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $98.203M in 2024-Q4 to $117.592M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the 10-12% growth target for 2026. The trajectory is delivering on the stated guidance.
Marqeta aims for an adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-12% for the second quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. While the guidance for adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-12% for Q2 2026 has been set, there is no specific financial data available yet to assess progress. The trajectory remains to be seen.
“Adjusted EBITDA Growth (1) 10 - 12% for Q2 2026.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Technology Officer On May 8, 2026, Marqeta, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Lukasz Strozek as Chief Technology Officer, effective May 18, 2026. In this role, Mr. Strozek will lead the technology and engineering organization. Mr. Strozek, age 42, most recently served as Chief Technology Officer of LendingClub C…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Marqeta, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 193…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer On January 7, 2026, Marqeta, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Patti Kangwankij as Chief Financial Officer, effective February 9, 2026. In this role, Ms. Kangwankij will lead the finance organization and assume the duties of the Company’s principal financial officer. At that time, Mr. Milotich,…
Other Events. On December 4, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Marqeta, Inc. ("Marqeta" or the "Company") approved an additional share repurchase program authorizing the Company to purchase up to an aggregate of $100 million of the Company’s Class A common stock (the “December 2025 Share Repurchase Program”). This December 2025 Share Repurchase Program is distinct from the existing 2025 Share Repurchase Program (as defined in the Company’s most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q…
“Gross Profit Growth 10 - 12% for 2026.”
“Full Year 2026 Gross Profit Growth 10 - 12%.”