Marqeta, Inc. (MQ)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.85-2.58%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Marqeta, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.50 → 0.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue growth	6%–8%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	186.76M
EPS	—	0.06
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	703.85M
EPS	—	0.222
Revenue growth	12%–13%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	806.26M
EPS	—	0.505

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-12% in Q2 2026	A supporting condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10-12% YoY growth.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 10% in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross profit growth of at least 10% in 2026	Gross profit rises 10%.	Improving	YoY gross profit growth falls below 10% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross Profit increased from $98.7M in 2025-Q1 to $121.9M in 2026-Q2, a 23% increase year-over-year, exceeding the 10-12% growth target. Management's guidance for full year 2026 remains at 10-12%, showing delivery and sustained focus on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Strong executive leadership with key hires	A supporting condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain strong leadership team.	Improving	Failure to retain or replace key executives	1 key exec departure (CAO) vs 0 target; 1 new hire (CPO) CAO resigned Aug 2026; new CPO hired Aug 2026; Q2 earnings beat; $150M buyback approved. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 recent disclosures including 2026-Q2 and August 2026. The company appointed a new Chief Technology Officer and Chief Product Officer, reflecting active efforts to strengthen executive leadership. This priority is being addressed with key hires, showing progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of at least 12% in 2026	A primary condition in Marqeta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26	Revenue growth: 17.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202617.024177 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 27365bca-4527-499b-adda-e8dac2f9e778. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net Revenue increased from $139M in 2025-Q1 to $176M in 2026-Q2, a 17% year-over-year increase. Management's guidance for full year 2026 targets 12-14% revenue growth, consistent with recent delivery, indicating the company is delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.50

Unavailable → $0.50 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.81B

$0.83B → $0.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-08-01	$0.40	$829,189,433	6 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$827,365,340	3 / 13
2026-08-03	$0.40	$829,189,433	6 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.40	$829,189,433	6 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.40	$829,189,433	6 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.40	$829,189,433	6 / 10
2026-08-07	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$809,527,280	2 / 13
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$809,527,280	2 / 13
2026-08-10	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-15	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-16	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-17	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-18	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-19	$0.45	$808,755,493	6 / 10
2026-08-20	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-21	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-22	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-23	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-24	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-25	$0.51	$806,350,498	6 / 10
2026-08-26	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-08-27	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-08-28	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-08-29	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-08-30	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-08-31	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-01	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-02	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-03	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-04	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-05	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-06	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-07	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-08	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-09	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-10	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-11	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-12	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-13	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-14	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-15	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-16	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 10
2026-09-17	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.50	$805,947,575	6 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.51	$806,820,267	6 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.51	$806,820,267	6 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.51	$806,820,267	6 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.51	$806,820,267	6 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.50	$806,204,883	6 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.50	$806,204,883	6 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.50	$806,206,606	6 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.50	$806,204,883	6 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.50	$806,254,960	6 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.50	$806,254,960	6 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.50	$806,255,021	6 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	10	1
2026-06-01	3	10	1
2026-07-01	3	10	1
2026-08-01	3	10	1
2026-09-01	3	10	1
2026-10-01	3	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA growth of 10-12% in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit growth of at least 10% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of at least 12% in 2026Revenue growth: 17.02%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Marqeta, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MQ is a growth-and-profitability improvement story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the evidence still classifies it as loss-making. Its thesis has strengthened over recent months as company momentum rose, while confidence moved to medium and the thesis remains in a watch state.

What's priced into Marqeta, Inc.

MQ is described as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in tag and low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but the snapshot gives no detail on what assumptions drive that gap, so the market’s expectations are only partly clear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: second-quarter 2026 net revenue grew 17% year over year, gross profit grew 23%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 86%, while management’s 2026 priorities remain on track. The multi-year case still depends on sustaining growth and improving profitability; recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort, and erratic earnings history leaves some risk despite a low stated miss probability.

What Marqeta, Inc. hinges on

The next guidance update is a key near-term test: a cut would weaken confidence in execution, while continued delivery against 2026 goals would support the thesis. Over the multi-year view, results may also be affected by interest-rate conditions and broader technology-sector momentum, though those factors do not replace MQ’s own execution.