Reading MITT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MITT free→Reading MITT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MITT free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Real Estate bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.83 MITT trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $13 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.26 (-4.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$270.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,074.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This affects mortgage rates and TPG's profits. Changes in rates can also change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by at least 25 basis points.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MITT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by this reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or into any filing or other docu…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MITT TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to enhance earnings power throughout 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Despite the stated goal of increasing earnings power, the financials show a net income decline from $13.3M in 2025-Q4 to a loss of $3.6M in 2026-Q1. This indicates limited progress towards the goal so far.
“we believe we are well-positioned to drive increased earnings power as we progress through 2026.”
The company continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share increased from $0.20 in 2025-Q1 to $0.24 in 2026-Q1, showing consistent commitment to maintaining and slightly increasing dividend payments. This reflects delivering on the priority.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts the economy and housing market. Strong growth can boost mortgage demand and TPG's performance.
Confirms:GDP growth exceeds 2% in the third estimate.
Disproves:GDP growth is below 1% in the third estimate.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact mortgage demand and housing market trends. Strong sales may boost confidence in housing.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026 , TPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and an earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the full year and fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the press release and earnings presentation are attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and the inform…
Regulation FD Disclosure On December 16, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing its name change and an updated web address. The press release also announced that the Company’s board of directors declared a dividend of $0.23 per share of the Company’s common stock for the fourth quarter 2025. The dividend is payable on January 30, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current R…
by this reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or into any filing or other docu…
by this reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or into any filing or other docu…
“Dividend per share was $0.24.”
“Dividend per share was $0.21.”
“Dividend per share was $0.21.”
“Dividend per share was $0.20.”