Reading LOAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOAN free→Reading LOAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOAN free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is steady. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Watch for signals from sector bellwethers and any earnings surprises. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.34 LOAN trades at 10× p/e, in line with its 10× p/e peer median. Our $4.12 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.11 (-8.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$68.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,201.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label changing from "fair" to "full." The risk dimension also fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which has not changed.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people want to buy. It affects real estate.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LOAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 24, 2026, Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to its Amended and Restated Credit and Security Agreement, as amended prior to the Amendment (the “ Agreement ”), among the Company, the guarantors party thereto, Webster Bank, National Association (“ Webster ”), the other lenders from time to time party thereto (the “ Lenders ”), and Webster, as agent for the Lenders (in such capacit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LOAN Manhattan Bridge Capital Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects the real estate market. Strong growth could support property values.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 12, 2025, MBC Funding II, a wholly owned subsidiary of Manhattan Bridge Capital, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into a letter agreement (the “ Letter Agreement ”) with Valley National Bank (“ Valley ”), pursuant to which Valley agreed to provide MBC Funding II with a line of credit in the principal amount of up to $10,000,000 (the “ Credit Facility ”). In connection with the Credit Facility, MBC Funding II executed a Line of Credit Note…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on November 26, 2025, MBC Funding II delivered a notice of redemption to all holders of the 6.00% Senior Secured Notes, due April 22, 2026 (the “6.00% Notes ”), stating that all outstanding 6.00% Notes would be redeemed on December 15, 2025 (the “ Redemption Date ”). On the Redemption Date, MBC Funding II completed the redemption of all $6,000,000 principal amount outstanding at 100% of principal of the 6.00% Notes plus a…
Other Events. In connection with the entry into the Letter Agreement, on December 12, 2025, the Company, together with MBC Funding II and Mr. Ran, entered into Amendment No. 8 (the “ Amendment ”) to the Company’s Amended and Restated Credit and Security Agreement, dated August 8, 2017, as previously amended, with Webster Bank, National Association, as agent, and the lenders party thereto. The Amendment was entered into to permit the incurrence of the Credit Facility and guarantees related the…