Reading KREF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KREF free→Reading KREF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KREF free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the market environment. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.71x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.14 → $-0.33 (-331.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -125.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$271.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,455.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If real estate revenue growth speeds up, it could help KREF's performance. This would show a stronger market.
Confirms:Real estate revenue growth speeds up above 5% each year.
Disproves:Real estate revenue growth continues to slow or stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KREF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), unless it is specifically in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Inc. | — | — | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Continue to pay a consistent dividend of $0.25 per share to shareholders.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share consistently at $0.25. Despite net income fluctuations, the company has maintained this dividend level, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“The Company’s Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“The Company’s Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“The Company’s Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.25 per share.”
“The Company’s Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.25 per share.”
Focus on enhancing net income performance to stabilize financial results.
Stated in 3 of last 4 quarters. Net income declined from $20.3M in 2024-Q4 to $13.8M in 2025-Q4. Despite efforts to improve, the trajectory shows limited progress with fluctuating results, indicating challenges in stabilizing financial performance.
“Net income of $13.8 million.”
“Reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $8.1 million.”
“Net income of $20.3 million.”
Increase cash generated from operating activities to support financial stability.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities decreased from $21.1M in 2025-Q2 to $13.1M in 2026-Q1. Despite the focus on enhancing cash flow, the trajectory shows a decline, indicating limited progress in achieving this priority.
“Cash from operating activities was $13.1 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $16.7 million.”
“Cash from operating activities increased to $18.5 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $21.1 million.”
Why it matters: This report will show if KREF's financial performance is improving or worsening. Investors will look closely at the results.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows net income going up each year. This means better performance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows net income going down each year. This means worse performance.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), unless it is specifically in…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers. On January 5, 2026, Kelly Galligan, General Counsel and Secretary of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company of her intention to resign from the Company. Ms. Galligan has agreed to remain with the Company for a transition period to assist in the transition of her responsibilities. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on…
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), unless it is specifically in…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Senior Secured Credit Facility On September 8, 2025, KREF Holdings X LLC (“ KREF X ”), a wholly owned subsidiary of KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (the “ Company ”), and certain specified subsidiaries of the Company entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “ Amendment ”) to the Term Loan Credit Agreement, dated as of March 5, 2025, among KREF X, as borrower, KKR Real Estate Finance Holdings L.P. (“ Opco ”), certain specified subsidiaries o…