Reading JVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JVA free→Reading JVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JVA free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If JVA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.32 JVA trades at 10× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $4.15 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$504.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,596.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Increased revenue would show that tariffs and market conditions are positively impacting sales. This is crucial for future growth.
Confirms:Revenue goes up a lot in the next earnings report. This shows tariff benefits.
Disproves:Revenue continues to decline or shows no growth in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for JVA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of or otherwise subject to the liabilities under Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Unless expressly incorporated into a filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act made after the date hereof, the information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JVA Coffee Holding Co Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | high |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding gross margins in the retail and wholesale business segments.
Management aims for the Second Empire business to be accretive to earnings by the end of the next quarter.
Utilize tariffs and the rebound in the green coffee market to gain a slight tailwind.
Why it matters: Improved margins would show that the company is managing costs better. This is key for future profitability.
Confirms:Gross margins go up a lot in the next earnings report. This shows recovery.
Disproves:Gross margins continue to decline or remain flat in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings from Second Empire show successful integration and profit. This could raise overall earnings.
Confirms:Net income from Second Empire shows a clear increase in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Net income from Second Empire remains stagnant or declines in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing despite challenges in the sector.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show trends in consumer spending that impact JVA's sales.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Loan Agreement Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly owned subsidiary, Organic Products Trading Company LLC (together with the Company, the “Borrowers”), are party to an Amended and Restated Loan and Security Agreement (as amended, the “Loan Agreement”), dated April 25, 2017, by and among the Borrowers and Webster Bank (“Lender”). On March 4, 2026, Borrowers entered into the Twelfth Loan Modification Agreement (the “Am…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As of March 4, 2026, the Amendment constitutes a direct financial obligation of the Company, the material terms of which are described above under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 26, 2026, with the approval of its board of directors, Coffee Holding Co., Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an amendment to its Amended and Restated Employment Agreement (the “ Amendment ”), dated April 11, 2008, between the Company and Andrew Gordon, the Company’s President, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Fina…
Other Events. On January 28, 2026, Coffee Holding Co., Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release discussing the Company’s yearly financial performance and providing details of a cash dividend to be paid to its stockholders. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.