Reading IIIV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IIIV free→Reading IIIV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IIIV free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with IIIV trading above typical for its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 IIIV trades at 18× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 36% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.26 → $0.26 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,355.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may impact I3 Verticals' performance. This could signal broader challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median value.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median value.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IIIV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IIIV I3 Verticals, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company announced a new share repurchase program for up to $100 million of Class A common stock.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company announced a new share repurchase program for up to $100 million in 2026-Q2, replacing the previous $60 million program from 2026-Q1. This indicates a continued focus on capital allocation through share buybacks.
“On May 12, 2026, the Board approved a new share repurchase program for up to $100 million.”
“On February 5, 2026, the Board approved a new share repurchase program for up to $60 million.”
The company provided a revised revenue outlook for fiscal year 2026 between $221 million and $229 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026 was revised from $217 million - $232 million in 2025-Q4 to $221 million - $229 million in 2026-Q2. This reflects a narrowing of the guidance range, indicating a more focused revenue target.
The company provided a revised adjusted EBITDA outlook for fiscal year 2026 between $61 million and $65 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2026 was revised from $58.5 million - $65 million in 2025-Q4 to $61 million - $65 million in 2026-Q2. This indicates a slight upward adjustment in the lower end of the guidance range, suggesting improved expectations.
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program for the Company’s Class A common stock, under which the Company may repurchase up to $100 million of outstanding shares of Class A common stock (exclusive of fees, commissions or other expenses related to such repurchases). This new share purchase program replaces the Company’s prior share repurchase program adopted on February 5, 2026, under which the maximum dollar amount under the author…
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events. On February 5, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program for the Company’s Class A common stock, under which the Company may repurchase up to $60 million of outstanding shares of Class A common stock (exclusive of fees, commissions or other expenses related to such repurchases). This new share purchase program replaces the Company’s prior share repurchase program under which the maximum dollar amount under the authorization has been expended.…
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall such information be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
“The Company is providing the following revised outlook for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026: Revenue $221,000 - $229,000.”
“The Company is providing the following revised outlook for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026: Revenue $223,000 - $234,000.”
“The Company is providing the following outlook for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026: Revenue $217,000 - $232,000.”
“Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) $61,000 - $65,000 for fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) $61,000 - $66,500 for fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) $58,500 - $65,000 for fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.”