I3 Verticals, Inc. (IIIV)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.37-0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge I3 Verticals, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	55.11M
EPS	—	0.293
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	228.55M
EPS	—	1.22
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	244.32M
EPS	—	1.375

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA at least $61 million in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $61 million.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $61 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $221 million in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $221 million.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $221 million in FY26	Revenue: $53.067M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $221 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202653,067,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 36aae6c1-ccb6-4d3f-9506-adfa3ef3baee. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchase program up to $100 million	A supporting condition in I3 Verticals, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase up to $100 million.	Intact	Company cancels or fails to execute $100 million buyback program	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. The company announced a $100 million share repurchase program in 2026-Q2 and reported repurchasing over 20% of shares since late 2024 by 2026-Q3. This shows active execution on capital allocation with ongoing share buybacks. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	4	0
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA at least $61 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches at least $221 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Share repurchase program up to $100 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 16, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-58.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

I3 Verticals, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

IIIV is a recurring-revenue software business with a multi-year thesis that depends on steady growth and disciplined execution. The thesis is intact, but recent performance and elevated risk make the setup less certain.

What's priced into I3 Verticals, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes IIIV as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are subdued. The model has medium confidence, and the priced-in assessment finds low fragility, so the evidence does not point to concentrated market expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the August earnings miss and lowered guidance are headwinds, while the latest quarter’s performance is described as holding in the top half of its industry. Over the multi-year view, annualized recurring revenue rose 8.3% year over year, but adjusted EBITDA margin progress is mixed; the recent share repurchases show continued capital-allocation activity.

What I3 Verticals, Inc. hinges on

A key swing factor is whether IIIV reverses the guidance cut and raises guidance next quarter. Rate cuts and continued strong results from large technology companies could support the sector backdrop, while the October agreement and new financial obligation add uncertainty because the evidence gives few details.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on recurring-revenue growth and a recovery in execution after the recent miss, with high risk and mixed margin progress as important counterweights. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.