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Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (HASI)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$38.24-0.13%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, HASI is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 91% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $4.89B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2013-05-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.24. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$20.02consensus
Range $17.32 – $30.53
vs price: +91% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$88.27consensus
Range $32.16 – $100.75
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $38 HASI trades at 25× p/e — 2.1× the 12× p/e peer median, and above its own 14× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $20 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $44–$57. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.5x
peer 12.4x · own history 14.2x
Premium
2.1x peer
1.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
91%
our forecast 24%
Our fair value
$19.98
range $17.17 – $29.43
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 91% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
11th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
91st pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral15 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.76 → $0.74 (-2.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$118.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$294.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,602.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 earnings results on August 6
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can keep paying its dividend after losses.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows net income is back to positive or the dividend is $0.425.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued net income losses and dividend cut.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HASI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting HASI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If HASI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If HASI cuts guidance on the next call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping HASI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on HASI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On June 15, 2026, HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) commenced, subject to market conditions, a private offering (the “Offering”) of green senior unsecured notes (the “Notes”). At issuance, the Notes will be guaranteed by Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure, L.P., Hannon Armstrong Capital, LLC, HAT Holdings I LLC, HAT Holdings II LLC, HAC Holdings I LLC and HAC Holdings II LLC. In connection with the Offering, the Company di…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.