Reading GRWG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRWG free→Reading GRWG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRWG free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with GRWG trading below typical for its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.51 GRWG trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $2.28 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.54x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.05 → $-0.03 (+35.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$621.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,273.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRWG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 19, 2026, GrowGeneration Corp. ('the "Company") published a press release regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025 and the introduction of guidance for the full year 2026. In the same press release, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $10 million of the Company's common stock. The share repurchase program may commence following the completion of customary administrati…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRWG GrowGeneration Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve breakeven Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income was -$4.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards breakeven Adjusted EBITDA. Management has consistently reiterated this goal, but financials show a need for significant improvement.
“GrowGen expects to achieve breakeven Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.”
“GrowGen expects to achieve breakeven Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.”
“currently anticipate both positive revenue growth and positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026”
The company has set a revenue guidance range of $162 million to $168 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $38.4M in 2026-Q1, which is below the quarterly average needed to meet the full-year guidance of $162M to $168M. The trajectory suggests challenges in achieving the upper range of guidance.
“The Company reaffirmed that it expects net revenue in the range of $162 million to $168 million.”
The Board has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $10 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The share repurchase program of up to $10M was announced, but there is no evidence of execution yet. This initiative is aimed at capital allocation, but its impact remains to be seen.
“The Company announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $10 million of the Company's common stock.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On December 29, 2025, GrowGeneration Corp. (the "Company") entered into a new employment agreement with Gregory Sanders, Chief Financial Officer. The new agreement will be effective as of January 1, 2026, superseding the employment agreement previously entered into between the Company and Mr. Sanders. The new agreement provides for a one-year term a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement The information set forth in
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On July 10, 2025, GrowGeneration Corp. (the “Company”) dismissed Grant Thornton LLP (“Grant Thornton”) as the Company's independent registered public accounting firm. The dismissal was approved by the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the board of directors of the Company. The reports of Grant Thornton on the Company's consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years en…
“For the full year 2026, the Company expects net revenue in the range of $162 to $168 million.”