Reading GPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPC free→Reading GPC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPC free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact GPC's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $107.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $105 GPC trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $124 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $127–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 16.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.09 → $2.06 (-1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$138.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,748.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS guidance shows better performance and boosts investor trust.
Confirms:Reported diluted earnings per share between $6.10 and $6.60.
Disproves:They reported diluted earnings per share under $6.10.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Separation of Global Automotive and Industrial
Separation may impact margins and dividend sustainability.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Genuine Parts Company issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K of Genuine Parts Company, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being "furnished" and shall not be deemed "f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$127.00 – $160.00 (median $145.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPC Genuine Parts Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AMZN Amazon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | full | moderate |
MCD McDonald's | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving total sales growth between 3% and 5.5% for the fiscal year 2026.
Plan to separate the company into two independent, publicly traded companies: Global Automotive and Global Industrial.
Aim to maintain free cash flow within the range of $550 million to $700 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Set a full-year 2026 EPS guidance range between $6.1 and $6.6.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in sales growth, impacting the full-year outlook.
Confirms:Q2 sales growth was less than 3%.
Disproves:Q2 sales growth was more than 5.5%.
Why it matters: This separation could unlock value and improve focus on each business segment.
Confirms:They will announce that the split into two public companies is done.
Disproves:There may be a delay or cancellation of the split plan.
Why it matters: The separation could unlock value and improve focus on each business segment. This is key for long-term growth.
Confirms:Look for news about a timeline or steps for the separation.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the separation plan.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance may show less profit and hurt investor trust.
Confirms:EPS guidance was less than $6.10.
Disproves:EPS guidance was more than $6.60.
Why it matters: This split is important for future growth and focus.
Confirms one read:Management says the split will finish in Q1 2027.
Confirms the other:Management delays the split or says there are big problems.
Why it matters: Keeping free cash flow shows good cash management and strong operations.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported within the range of $550 million to $700 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $550 million.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 28, 2026, Genuine Parts Company (the "Company") entered into a seventh amendment (the "Seventh Amendment") to its existing Syndicated Facility Agreement, dated October 30, 2020, by and among the Company, UAP, Inc., certain designated Company subsidiaries, as borrowers, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, domestic swing line lender and L/C issuer, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., acting through its Toronto Branch, as Canadian swing…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Other Events On April 27, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of one dollar and six and one quarter cents ($1.0625) per share on the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on July 2, 2026 to shareholders of record on June 5, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend declaration is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 18, 2026, Naveen Krishna, the Executive Vice President, Chief Information & Digital Officer of Genuine Parts Company (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intent to resign from the Company to pursue other opportunities. Mr. Krishna will step down as an executive officer of the Company, effective April 1, 2026, but will rem…