Reading GME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GME free→Reading GME? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GME free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has taken capital-friendly actions. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with GME trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $18 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.19. 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
2 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$151.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$337.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,799.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows the company is working well. It helps future growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations is over $337.4 million next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations falls below $193.6 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Announce $2.0 billion share repurchase
Significant buyback announcement supports capital allocation strategy.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. On June 2, 2026 , GameStop Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press relea…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GME GameStop | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
GameStop has proposed to acquire eBay at $125 per share, with a mix of cash and stock.
GameStop's Board approved a $2.0 billion share repurchase authorization through June 2029.
GameStop aims to enhance cash flow from operations, focusing on cost management and efficiency.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well GameStop is doing and its plans.
Confirms one read:Earnings results beat analyst expectations and show strong growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings results do not meet analyst expectations, which may show problems.
Why it matters: Doing the buyback could show confidence in GameStop's finances and help its stock.
Confirms:GameStop says it has completed the $2.0 billion share buyback.
Disproves:GameStop delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Threatens: Announce $2.0 billion share repurchase
Buyback may signal cash flow issues, conflicting with objectives.
Regulation FD Disclosure. The following information contained in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished pursuant to Item 7.01 “Regulation FD Disclosure,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. On June 2, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company's Board of Directors has approved a new discretionary $2.0 billion share rep…
Other Items. On May 3, 2026, the Company submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire 100% of eBay at $125.00 per share in cash and stock. On May 4, 2026, the Company filed a Schedule 13D reporting its combined beneficial ownership of, and economic exposure through derivatives to, eBay. Consummation of the Proposal would be subject to customary closing conditions, including receipt of shareholder approval of both the Company and eBay and receipt of required antitrust approvals. There can be no…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as am…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 7, 2025, GameStop Corp. (the “Company”), announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a distribution (the “Warrant Distribution”) to the holders of record of the Company’s Class A Common Stock, par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”) and holders of the Company’s 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 and 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Convertible Notes”), in the form of warrants to purchase shares…