Reading GEF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GEF free→Reading GEF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GEF free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while comparisons with sector peers show typical performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for GEF right now, so treat our $70 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, well above our forecast of about -41%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.30 → $1.08 (-17.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 6 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,951.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows a promise to give money back to shareholders.
Confirms:Management says they completed the $150M share buyback program.
Disproves:The share buyback program is delayed or cut below $100M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GEF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amended and Restated Transfer and Administration Agreement On May 11, 2026, certain U.S. subsidiaries of Greif, Inc. (the “Company”) amended and restated the existing receivables financing facility (the “Receivables Facility”). Greif Receivables Funding LLC (“Greif Funding”), Greif Packaging LLC (“Greif Packaging”), for itself and as servicer, and certain other U.S. subsidiaries of the Company entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Transfer and A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GEF Greif, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | fair | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Greif aims to achieve $120 million in cost optimization by the end of fiscal 2026 through manufacturing cost management and SG&A reductions.
Greif completed its $150 million share repurchase program, repurchasing a total of 1.8 million shares of Class A and 0.4 million shares of Class B.
Greif maintains its low-end guidance for fiscal 2026, reflecting ongoing demand trends and current price/cost factors.
Maintain disciplined capital allocation to optimize financial performance.
Continue to manage mergers and acquisitions to support strategic growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Greif can improve its financial performance after a recent miss.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share exceeds analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share misses analyst expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Greif can maintain guidance and manage costs effectively in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Q3 earnings are higher than the low-end guidance. This guidance is $630 million Adjusted EBITDA.
Confirms the other:Q3 earnings are lower than the low-end guidance. This guidance is $630 million Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: A positive shift in sector revenue could signal a recovery in demand for Greif's products.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays negative for another quarter.
Why it matters: New M&A activity could signal growth and strategic direction. It may also impact revenue and market position.
Confirms:There is news of a successful merger or acquisition. This boosts revenue or market share.
Disproves:No new merger or acquisition news shows slow growth efforts.
Why it matters: Successful M&A can enhance growth and improve market position for Greif.
Confirms:Greif announced a successful acquisition. This fits their growth plan.
Disproves:There are no new M&A announcements. There is also no bad news on recent deals.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and efficient operations.
Confirms:Management says they will save at least $100M by the end of the fiscal year.
Disproves:Cost optimization progress stalls below $80M by fiscal year end.
Why it matters: Clear plans on capital use show Greif's aim to improve its finances.
Confirms:Management shares a new plan that focuses on paying down debt.
Disproves:No new updates or mixed signals about capital use.
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. (A) Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information concerning the satisfaction of the Company’s obligations under the Existing TAA is set forth in Items 10.1 and 10.2, which information is incorporated herein by reference. Section 9 – Financial Statements and Exhibits
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. (A) Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation The information concerning the Company’s Fourth Amended TAA is set forth in Item 10.1, which information is incorporated herein by reference.
to this Current Report on Form 8-K), which provided for a $275 million Receivables Facility. The Fourth Amended TAA will provide for a $200 million Receivables Facility. Greif Funding is a direct subsidiary of Greif Packaging and is included in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. However, because Greif Funding is a separate and distinct legal entity from the Company, the assets of Greif Funding are not available to satisfy the liabilities and obligations of the Company, Greif Pac…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Greif, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the “Earnings Release”) announcing the financial results for its second quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Earnings Release includes various non-GAAP financial measures, including measures such as net income excluding the impact of certain adjustments, earnings per diluted Cla…