Greif, Inc. (GEF)

NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$82.27-1.03%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Greif, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	0.764
Annual ending 2027-09-30
Revenue	—	4.46B
EPS	—	4.852
Annual ending 2028-09-30
Revenue	—	4.56B
EPS	—	5.158

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete $150M share repurchase program	It finished a $150 million share buyback program, showing strong capital use.	Intact	share repurchase program remains incomplete past Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $150 million share repurchase program was nearly completed with $130 million repurchased by 2026-Q1 and fully completed by 2026-Q2. Additionally, the Board authorized $300 million of future repurchases. Management is delivering on the share repurchase commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $120M cost optimization by fiscal year end	A primary condition in Greif, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $120 million run-rate cost optimization.	Intact	cost optimization run-rate falls below $75 million by FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cost optimization run-rate savings increased from $50 million at 2025-Q4 to $65 million at 2026-Q1 and $90 million at 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed the target of at least $120 million cumulative savings by fiscal 2027. The trajectory shows delivering consistent progress toward the stated cost optimization goal. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain free cash flow near $310M	Earnings beat estimates recently and free cash flow guidance was raised to $310 million.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY25	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 1.6% annually	A supporting condition in Greif, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 1.6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 1% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,530,160,000	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,530,160,000	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,539,720,000	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,539,720,000	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,563,825,000	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	0
2026-06-01	1	5	0
2026-07-01	1	5	1
2026-08-01	1	4	1
2026-09-01	1	4	1
2026-10-01	2	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 15

$74.00 → $88.00+18.9%

Raymond JamesOct 16

$90.00New observation · no comparable prior

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Aug 4

$97.00 → $94.00-3.1%

$0$53.35$106.70

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete $150M share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve $120M cost optimization by fiscal year endDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain free cash flow near $310MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 1.6% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Greif, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GEF is an execution and cost-improvement story, not a clear durable-growth case on this evidence. Its multi-year view is intact: momentum improved and the latest reported event was an earnings beat, though confidence is now medium.

What's priced into Greif, Inc.

The evidence labels what is priced in as justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but the snapshot does not provide a peer valuation comparison or enough detail to say whether shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results face a headwind from subdued demand and a sector backdrop marked as unfavorable. Management has raised cost-optimization run-rate savings from $50 million to $90 million and completed its $150 million repurchase program, while its fiscal 2026 outlook was adjusted to $615–$635 million of adjusted EBITDA and $305–$325 million of adjusted free cash flow. A next-call guidance cut remains a stated risk, despite a low estimated miss risk and a history of a deep miss.

What Greif, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on progress toward at least $120 million of cumulative cost savings by fiscal 2027 and on management delivering within its cautious outlook. Sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from PKG, SW, and AMCR could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.

Bottom line

For the 1–3 year view, GEF’s thesis is intact but conditional on continued cost execution and stable guidance amid sector headwinds. Recent momentum is better, but fragile earnings quality and medium confidence keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.