Reading FSLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSLY free→Reading FSLY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSLY free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
FSLY's recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 197% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19, FSLY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 64× p/e (3.0× the 21× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~197% near-term growth vs our ~19% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $6.24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $18–$32. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 197% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.03x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.07 (+50.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 52.9% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$452.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$633.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,128.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for Fastly. Strong growth would support their strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FSLY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
principal accounting officer — Jeffrey Ford: Jeffrey Ford was promoted to principal accounting officer from Chief Accounting Officer.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$18.00 – $32.00 (median $24.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FSLY Fastly, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to achieve positive EPS through strategic financial management and growth.
Why it matters: Achieving positive EPS is a priority for Fastly. It signals financial health.
Confirms:Q2 EPS turns positive for the first time.
Disproves:Q2 EPS remains negative.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Fastly, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 by issuing a press release. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is the Company’s investor supplement, regarding results of the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Investor Supplement”). The Investor S…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On March 4, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Fastly, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of KPMG LLP (“KPMG”), as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. As of the date of this report, KPMG is in the process of its standard client evaluation procedures and has not accepted the engagement. During the Company’s two most recent f…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Fastly, Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 by issuing a press release. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated by reference herein is the Company’s investor supplement, regarding results of the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The disclosure set forth under the heading Additional Capped Call Transactions in