Fastly, Inc. (FSLY)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.41+8.73%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fastly, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+5.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.61 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$0.11–$0.13non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	196.89M
EPS	—	0.128
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	741.02M
EPS	$0.5–$0.54non-GAAP	0.525
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	850.72M
EPS	—	0.643

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating loss narrows toward -$23.9M in Q1 2026	Profit losses are shrinking, with operating income improving from -$46.7M to -$23.9M.	Under Pressure	Operating loss worsens beyond -$46M	Operating income: $-14.433M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= -$23.9M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 2026-14,433,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6ba877a-e9c0-44d3-8a21-3bf378a996e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income improved from losses of -$5.85 million in 2025-Q1 and -$4.59 million in 2025-Q4 to positive $19.14 million in 2026-Q1 and $26.99 million in 2026-Q2. GAAP gross margin expanded from 53.2% in 2025-Q1 to 63.3% in 2026-Q2. Management is delivering improved operating income and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS reaches positive territory near $0.30 in FY26	The company expects positive earnings per share near $0.30 in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS remains negative or below $0.03	Diluted EPS: $-0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-0.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6ba877a-e9c0-44d3-8a21-3bf378a996e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP net income per diluted share improved from losses of -$0.05 in 2025-Q1 and -$0.03 in 2025-Q2 to positive $0.13 in 2026-Q1 and $0.17 in 2026-Q2. Management is making progress toward achieving positive EPS. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $717.5M in FY26	A primary condition in Fastly, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$717.5M.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $610M in FY26	Revenue: $183.317M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$717.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026183,317,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d6ba877a-e9c0-44d3-8a21-3bf378a996e4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $173 million in 2026-Q1 to $183.3 million in 2026-Q2, representing 20% and 23% year-over-year growth respectively. Management's focus on revenue growth is delivering with consistent double-digit year-over-year increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.64

$0.40 → $0.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.85B

$0.80B → $0.85B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$0.40	$800,334,168	7 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$0.40	$800,334,168	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$0.40	$800,334,168	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$0.40	$800,334,168	7 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$0.40	$800,343,370	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$0.53	$822,728,870	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$0.53	$822,728,870	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$0.53	$822,728,870	12 / 12
2026-08-11	$0.57	$826,770,540	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.58	$829,278,040	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.57	$826,761,370	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.58	$829,269,703	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.58	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.59	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.59	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$0.59	$829,267,203	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$0.61	$837,518,037	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$0.61	$837,518,037	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$0.63	$842,228,718	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$0.63	$842,228,718	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$0.63	$842,228,718	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$0.63	$842,228,718	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$0.63	$842,228,718	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$0.63	$846,179,551	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$0.63	$846,179,551	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$0.63	$846,179,559	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.64	$850,712,893	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.64	$850,715,059	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	7	1
2026-06-01	4	6	1
2026-07-01	5	6	1
2026-08-01	5	6	1
2026-09-01	5	6	1
2026-10-01	6	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 9 · prior Sep 23

$22.00 → $35.00+59.1%

$0$19.25$38.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating loss narrows toward -$23.9M in Q1 2026Published status: Under Pressure
EPS reaches positive territory near $0.30 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $717.5M in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fastly, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth and margin-improvement story, not yet a durable compounder, because the evidence still describes earnings quality as loss-making. The thesis has turned mildly favorable, but the current state remains watch given elevated risk and recent performance below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Fastly, Inc.

FSLY trades at a 41% premium to peers, which the evidence links to a durable premium, while the expectations gap is modestly negative. The valuation is tagged as justified and fragility is low, but the premium leaves the thesis reliant on continued execution rather than clear evidence that expectations are easy to exceed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show progress: revenue grew 20% year over year in the first quarter and 23% in the second, while non-GAAP operating income turned positive and gross margin expanded. Non-GAAP earnings per share also improved, though the priority of achieving positive earnings per share remains mixed; a recent guidance raise is encouraging, but a reversal would damage credibility.

What Fastly, Inc. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth and turning margin gains into durable profitability. Near-term risks include a guidance cut after the recent raise; broader support could come if interest rates ease or large technology peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.