Reading FLYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLYW free→Reading FLYW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLYW free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with FLYW trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 FLYW trades at 24× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $15–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 25% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 34%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.12 → $0.11 (-6.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$430.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,816.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'moderate' to 'elevated'.
Risk rose. The risk label changed to "elevated." Earnings quality remains robust. Management is stable and capital-friendly. The sector backdrop is a tailwind. Valuation is fair, priced roughly in line with peers.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for Flywire. It would impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth has been below average for two months in a row.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FLYW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Flywire Corporation (“Flywire” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) and is holding a conference call regarding its preliminary and unaudited financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the conference call are “forward-looking statements…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$15.00 – $22.00 (median $18.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FLYW Flywire Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding adjusted EBITDA margin by 175 to 375 basis points year-over-year.
Continue executing the stock repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Aim for revenue growth of 15% to 21% on a foreign exchange neutral basis for the fiscal year 2026.
Other Events On May 13, 2026, the Company entered into a privately negotiated securities repurchase agreement (the “Repurchase Agreement”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to repurchase 1,873,320 shares of its non-voting common stock from the seller for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $29 million (the “Repurchase Transaction”). The Repurchase Transaction closed on May 14, 2026 and was effected pursuant to the Company's previously announced stock repurchase program. Following…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) On March 25, 2026, based upon the recommendation of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Flywire Corporation (“Flywire”), the Board appointed Christine Katziff (“Ms. Katziff”) to the Board as a Class I director, with her initial term expiring at Flywire’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholder…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Flywire Corporation (“Flywire” or the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) and is holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. The Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. Various statements to be made during the conference call are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 13, 2026, Flywire Corporation (the “Company”) announced that it is evolving its leadership structure to reflect the increasing importance of product differentiation, software innovation, and AI-enabled workflows across its verticals with David King, who has served as the Company’s Chief Technology Officer (“CTO”) since June 2019, shiftin…