Flywire Corp. (FLYW)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.40+1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Flywire Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.71 → 0.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
FX-Neutral revenue growth	16%–22%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	178.92M
EPS	—	0.073
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	762.28M
EPS	—	0.417
FX-Neutral revenue growth	21%–27%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	877.98M
EPS	—	0.701

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by 1.75 to 3.75 percentage points YoY	Profit margins are set to improve by 1.75 to 3.75 percentage points.	Broken	EBITDA margin growth falls below 1.75 percentage points in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth of 15% to 21% in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Flywire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is 15% to 21% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue growth: 27.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15% to 21% YoY growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202627.183811 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b98a5dbb-6f74-476d-a47e-0dc759700d11. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase shares under stock buyback program totaling about $29 million in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Flywire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase of approximately $29 million shares in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Buyback program execution falls significantly below $29 million in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.70

$1.25 → $0.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.88B

$0.86B → $0.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.25	$862,894,820	7 / 13
2026-07-25	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-07-26	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-07-30	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-01	$0.66	$863,884,970	7 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-03	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-04	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-05	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-06	$1.25	$860,917,900	7 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-09	$1.32	$873,761,560	7 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.32	$873,761,560	7 / 13
2026-08-11	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.35	$875,291,340	7 / 13
2026-08-13	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.66	$874,411,292	7 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.68	$881,631,453	7 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.71	$882,158,453	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.71	$881,609,122	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.71	$881,609,122	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.71	$881,609,122	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.71	$881,609,122	7 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.70	$881,466,264	7 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.70	$881,466,264	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.70	$881,466,264	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.70	$881,407,712	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-08	$0.70	$882,536,284	7 / 11
2026-10-09	$0.70	$880,350,569	7 / 11
2026-10-10	$0.70	$880,350,569	7 / 11
2026-10-11	$0.70	$880,350,569	7 / 11
2026-10-12	$0.70	$880,350,569	7 / 11
2026-10-13	$0.70	$880,350,569	7 / 11
2026-10-14	$0.71	$879,848,355	7 / 11
2026-10-15	$0.71	$879,848,355	6 / 11
2026-10-16	$0.71	$879,848,355	6 / 11
2026-10-17	$0.71	$879,848,355	6 / 11
2026-10-18	$0.70	$879,245,131	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$0.70	$879,245,131	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$0.70	$879,245,131	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$0.70	$879,245,131	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$0.70	$877,979,398	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$0.70	$877,979,398	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$0.70	$877,979,931	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	5	1
2026-06-01	10	5	0
2026-07-01	9	6	0
2026-08-01	8	6	0
2026-09-01	8	6	0
2026-10-01	8	7	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by 1.75 to 3.75 percentage points YoYPublished status: Broken
Achieve revenue growth of 15% to 21% in fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 27.18%
Repurchase shares under stock buyback program totaling about $29 million in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-28.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Flywire Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FLYW is a growth business whose long-term thesis depends on continued revenue growth and improving margins. The thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated, so execution remains central to the multi-year view.

What's priced into Flywire Corp.

The evidence describes FLYW as expensive versus peers, even though one valuation measure indicates it is cheap versus peers; this points to a mixed valuation picture. Expectations appear justified overall, with only low fragility priced in, while the expectations gap is slightly negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show strong execution: second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 27.2% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA rose 44.5% as margins expanded. Management raised its 2026 growth and margin guidance, but a recent earnings miss and a pattern of misses keep the near-term execution risk meaningful.

What Flywire Corp. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on FLYW sustaining its raised guidance without a reversal that would weaken confidence in management’s execution. Near-term conditions could also be affected by interest-rate cuts and continued strength from sector peers, though these are less direct than the company’s own delivery.