Reading FIVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVN free→Reading FIVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like MSFT and ORCL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 FIVN trades at 8× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $70 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 70% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.74 → $0.68 (-8.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 20 cut, 22 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 200.0% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$227.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$647.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,333.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Five9 is doing. They will also show market trends.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows higher revenue and profit than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows lower revenue and profit than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIVN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Five9, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company is also providing additional financial information that will be posted on the Investor Relations sections of its website at https://investors.five9.com/, which is attached…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIVN Five9, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Guidance for full-year 2026 revenue is set between $1.254 billion and $1.266 billion.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $278.66M in 2024-Q4 to $305.32M in 2026-Q1, indicating a positive trajectory towards the 2026 guidance range of $1.254 to $1.266 billion. The company is delivering on its growth guidance.
“Five9 expects full-year 2026 revenue in the range of $1.254 to $1.266 billion.”
“Five9 expects full-year 2026 revenue in the range of $1.247 to $1.261 billion.”
Guidance for full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS is set between $3.22 and $3.30.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS guidance increased from $0.86-$0.95 to $3.22-$3.30, reflecting a significant upward revision. This suggests a strong expected performance for 2026, aligning with the company's growth objectives.
“Five9 expects full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $3.22 to $3.30.”
“Five9 expects full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $0.86 to $0.95.”
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening trend in the IT sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Other Events. On May 4, 2026, Five9, Inc. (the “Company”) commenced an accelerated share repurchase agreement (“ASR”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, to repurchase $90.0 million of the Company’s common stock under the share repurchase authorization previously disclosed on the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 30, 2026. Under the ASR, on May 5, 2026, the Company will make a payment of $90.0 million and expects to…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on December 8, 2024, Five9, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a cooperation letter agreement (the “Agreement”) with Anson Funds Management LP, Anson Advisors Inc. and certain other parties (collectively, “Anson”). The Agreement is summarized in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on December 9, 2024, and a copy of the Agreement is filed as Exhibit 10.1 to that Current Report. On February 17, 2026, the Company…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 furnished herewith) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amended and Restated Employment Transition Agreement In connection with the appointment of Amit Mathradas as the new Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of Five9, Inc. (the “Company”), effective as of February 2, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company approved the Amended and Restated Employment Transition Agreement between the Compa…