Five9, Inc. (FIVN)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.61+7.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Five9, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.84 → 3.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$316M–$322M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	330.76M
EPS	—	0.993
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.26B–$1.27B	1.26B
EPS	—	3.253
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.38B
EPS	—	3.839

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Continued share buybacks totaling at least $140 million in 2026	A supporting condition in Five9, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $140 million in buybacks.	Improving	Buybacks cease or fall below $50 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP EPS reaches about $3.26 in 2026	A primary condition in Five9, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.26.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.00 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable leadership with no major disruptions	A supporting condition in Five9, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures.	Under Pressure	Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.26 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Five9, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.26 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $1.15 billion in FY26	Revenue: $312.444M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.26 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026312,444,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e19f66da-0288-4a19-bde1-7c67be46e987. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.84

$3.78 → $3.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.38B

$1.39B → $1.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.78	$1,390,289,513	13 / 17
2026-07-25	$3.78	$1,389,769,880	22 / 21
2026-07-26	$3.78	$1,389,769,880	22 / 21
2026-07-27	$3.78	$1,390,289,513	13 / 17
2026-07-28	$3.78	$1,390,289,513	13 / 17
2026-07-29	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	13 / 16
2026-07-30	$3.77	$1,387,575,450	21 / 20
2026-07-31	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$3.77	$1,387,575,450	21 / 20
2026-08-03	$3.77	$1,387,575,450	21 / 20
2026-08-04	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	12 / 16
2026-08-05	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	12 / 16
2026-08-06	$3.77	$1,388,006,942	12 / 16
2026-08-07	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-08	$3.81	$1,388,548,900	21 / 20
2026-08-09	$3.81	$1,388,548,900	21 / 20
2026-08-10	$3.81	$1,388,548,900	21 / 20
2026-08-11	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-12	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-13	$3.84	$1,391,843,440	21 / 20
2026-08-14	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-15	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-16	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-17	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-18	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-19	$3.77	$1,388,004,758	12 / 16
2026-08-20	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-21	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-22	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-23	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-24	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-25	$3.84	$1,380,909,935	12 / 16
2026-08-26	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-08-27	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-08-28	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-08-29	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-08-30	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$3.84	$1,380,911,398	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-19	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-20	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-21	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-22	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-23	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-26	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-27	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-28	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-29	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-09-30	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-01	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-02	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-03	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-04	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-05	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-06	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-07	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-08	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-09	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-10	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-11	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-12	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-13	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-14	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-15	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-16	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-17	$3.84	$1,381,545,829	12 / 16
2026-10-18	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-19	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-20	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-21	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-22	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-23	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16
2026-10-24	$3.84	$1,381,544,529	12 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	7
2026-06-01	15	7
2026-07-01	15	7
2026-08-01	14	7
2026-09-01	15	6
2026-10-01	15	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 16

$48.00New observation · no comparable prior

D.A. DavidsonSep 28 · prior Aug 3

$22.00 → $33.00+50.0%

$0$26.40$52.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Continued share buybacks totaling at least $140 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP EPS reaches about $3.26 in 2026Published status: Broken
Stable leadership with no major disruptionsPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $1.26 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Five9, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software business, not yet a durable earnings compounder, because it remains loss-making. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, with recent results holding up relative to its industry, though management execution is mixed and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Five9, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure indicates FIVN is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.3 premium to peers; model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, and valuation rose recently, so the evidence does not point to a clear cushion or a clear case that expectations are undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown 9% and 10% year over year in the first two quarters of 2026, in line with management’s focus on subscription and AI revenue growth. Full-year guidance has been broadly stable but is rated mixed, while share-repurchase execution is on track; the company remains loss-making. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though peer misses and a prior deep miss are reasons to watch execution.

What Five9, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case depends on subscription and AI growth continuing and management maintaining its 2026 outlook. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.