Reading ESCA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESCA free→Reading ESCA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ESCA free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady, with a capital-friendly approach. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If ESCA cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19 ESCA trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.16 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$143.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$380.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,209.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost Escalade's outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ESCA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Section 8 – Other Events
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ESCA Escalade, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The Board has approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.1525 per share.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board approved an increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.1525 per share, reflecting a consistent focus on returning capital to shareholders. This increase aligns with the company's capital allocation strategy.
“Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.1525 per share.”
“Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.1525 per share.”
Management aims to sustain improved gross margin performance despite uneven consumer demand.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Management expressed the goal of sustaining improved gross margin performance. However, specific gross margin figures are not provided in the financials, making it difficult to assess progress on this priority.
“We expect to sustain improved gross margin performance.”
Escalade completed the acquisition of substantially all assets of AllCornhole.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Escalade completed the acquisition of AllCornhole assets, marking a strategic move to expand its product offerings. The acquisition is not material for financial reporting, indicating limited immediate financial impact.
“Escalade has acquired substantially all the assets of AllCornhole.”
Why it matters: The FOMC's decision on interest rates can impact consumer spending. A rate hike could slow down spending.
Confirms one read:FOMC keeps interest rates steady or lowers them.
Confirms the other:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Why it matters: Revenue growth may show that the sector is recovering. This could help Escalade.
Confirms:The Consumer Discretionary sector has positive revenue growth for the first time in three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still negative for another quarter.
Other Events. On April 29, 2026, the Board of Directors of Escalade approved a quarterly dividend of fifteen and twenty-five hundredths cents $0.1525 per share would be paid to all shareholders of record on July 6, 2026 and disbursed on July 13, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of Escalade, Incorporated (“Escalade” or the “Company) appointed Patrick J. Griffin, as the Company’s full-time Chief Executive Officer and President. Mr. Griffin, age 56, has served as the Company’s interim Chief Executive Officer and President since October 29, 2025. Previously, Mr. Griffin served as the C…
shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into a filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Section 8 – Other Events
Other Events. On February 26, 2026, the Board of Directors of Escalade approved a quarterly dividend of fifteen and twenty-five hundredths cents $0.1525 per share that will be paid to all shareholders of record on April 6, 2026 and disbursed on April 13, 2026.