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Dynatrace (DT)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$41.20+1.10%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with DT positioned above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $11.88B
- Employees
- 5,600
- IPO date
- 2019-07-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$31.81consensus
Range $27.02 – $37.82
vs price: +30% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$43.41consensus
Range $42.85 – $57.64
vs price: -5% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $41 DT trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $36–$64. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.1x
peer 21.2x · own history 106.2x
Premium
1.1x peer
0.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
29%
our forecast 20%
Our fair value
$31.95
range $27.10 – $37.82
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
62nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
81st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral34 analysts, 68% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.44 (-1.6% / 30d). 9 raised, 15 cut, 34 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 45.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$421.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,287.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q1 ARR growth to meet or exceed 16%
Why it matters: This growth rate shows that Dynatrace keeps strong demand for its platform.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q1 ARR growth of 16% or higher compared to the previous year.
Disproves:Q1 ARR growth falls below 15% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1622h agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Increase revenue growth
ARR growth aligns with revenue growth objective.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DT and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting DT and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping DT and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
of this Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.