Dynatrace (DT)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.05+1.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dynatrace’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.27 → 2.28 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	589.65M
EPS	—	0.512
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.31B–$2.32B	2.32B
Subscription revenue	$2.21B–$2.22B	—
EPS	$1.97–$1.99non-GAAP	1.983
Free cash flow	$610M–$615Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating margin	29.5%–29.75%non-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.68B
EPS	—	2.28

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grows at least 18% YoY to $2.05B	Dynatrace grows revenue 19% yearly to $2.0B with ARR up 18% to $2.05B.	Under Pressure	ARR growth falls below 18% YoY in FY26 Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. ARR grew from $1,972 million in 2026-Q3 to $2,136 million in 2027-Q1, and total revenue increased from $515 million to $555 million over the same period. Management consistently emphasized accelerating ARR and revenue growth driven by cloud-native and AI workloads, and the financials show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Non-GAAP operating margin remains near 29%	A primary condition in Dynatrace's published investment case. The stated target is >= 29%.	Intact	Non-GAAP operating margin falls below 29% in FY26 Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP operating income rose from $37 million in 2026-Q4 to $71 million in 2027-Q1, while non-GAAP operating margin has been steady around 29%. The trajectory shows delivering improved profitability alongside growth, consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue grows at least 17% YoY to ~$2.33B	A primary condition in Dynatrace's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2,326 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2,326 million in FY27 Q3	Revenue: $554.548M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $2,326 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026554,548,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1562b165-0c0b-4e9d-96c3-12f25318d166. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. ARR grew from $1,972 million in 2026-Q3 to $2,136 million in 2027-Q1, and total revenue increased from $515 million to $555 million over the same period. Management consistently emphasized accelerating ARR and revenue growth driven by cloud-native and AI workloads, and the financials show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.28

$2.25 → $2.28 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.68B

$2.67B → $2.68B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.25	$2,669,416,602	20 / 27
2026-07-25	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-07-26	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-07-27	$2.25	$2,669,416,602	20 / 27
2026-07-28	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-07-29	$2.25	$2,669,416,602	20 / 27
2026-07-30	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-07-31	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-08-01	$2.25	$2,669,416,602	20 / 27
2026-08-02	$2.26	$2,669,460,810	36 / 36
2026-08-03	$2.25	$2,669,417,557	20 / 27
2026-08-04	$2.25	$2,669,417,557	20 / 27
2026-08-05	$2.25	$2,669,417,557	20 / 27
2026-08-06	$2.25	$2,669,417,557	20 / 27
2026-08-07	$2.28	$2,661,812,291	20 / 27
2026-08-08	$2.29	$2,662,270,120	37 / 36
2026-08-09	$2.29	$2,662,270,120	37 / 36
2026-08-10	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-11	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-12	$2.29	$2,662,084,150	37 / 36
2026-08-13	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-14	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-15	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-16	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-17	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	20 / 27
2026-08-18	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	18 / 26
2026-08-19	$2.28	$2,661,811,485	18 / 25
2026-08-20	$2.27	$2,668,140,311	17 / 23
2026-08-21	$2.27	$2,668,140,311	17 / 22
2026-08-22	$2.27	$2,668,140,311	17 / 22
2026-08-23	$2.27	$2,668,140,311	17 / 22
2026-08-24	$2.27	$2,668,113,445	17 / 22
2026-08-25	$2.27	$2,668,113,445	17 / 22
2026-08-26	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-08-27	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-08-28	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-08-29	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-08-30	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-08-31	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-01	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-02	$2.27	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-03	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-04	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-05	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-06	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-07	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-08	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-09	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-10	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-11	$2.28	$2,673,713,403	17 / 21
2026-09-12	$2.28	$2,672,831,178	17 / 21
2026-09-13	$2.28	$2,672,831,178	16 / 21
2026-09-14	$2.28	$2,672,831,178	16 / 21
2026-09-15	$2.28	$2,672,831,178	16 / 21
2026-09-16	$2.27	$2,672,160,261	17 / 22
2026-09-17	$2.27	$2,672,159,161	17 / 22
2026-09-18	$2.27	$2,672,159,161	17 / 22
2026-09-19	$2.27	$2,672,159,161	17 / 22
2026-09-20	$2.27	$2,673,162,405	17 / 22
2026-09-21	$2.27	$2,673,162,405	17 / 22
2026-09-22	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-23	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-24	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-25	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-26	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-27	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-28	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-29	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-09-30	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	17 / 22
2026-10-01	$2.27	$2,673,163,326	18 / 22
2026-10-02	$2.27	$2,674,653,313	18 / 22
2026-10-03	$2.27	$2,674,653,313	18 / 22
2026-10-04	$2.27	$2,674,653,313	18 / 22
2026-10-05	$2.27	$2,674,653,313	18 / 22
2026-10-06	$2.27	$2,674,653,314	18 / 22
2026-10-07	$2.27	$2,674,653,314	18 / 22
2026-10-08	$2.27	$2,674,653,314	18 / 22
2026-10-09	$2.28	$2,677,217,478	18 / 22
2026-10-10	$2.28	$2,677,217,478	18 / 22
2026-10-11	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.28	$2,677,011,260	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.28	$2,677,011,263	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.28	$2,677,009,527	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.28	$2,677,008,981	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.28	$2,678,920,820	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	27	12	0
2026-06-01	26	12	0
2026-07-01	26	11	0
2026-08-01	27	11	0
2026-09-01	27	11	1
2026-10-01	28	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 28 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Oct 23

$78.00 → $80.00+2.6%

BTIGOct 21

$73.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Jun 18

$50.00 → $71.00+42.0%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 6

$60.00 → $71.00+18.3%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$50.00 → $73.00+46.0%

JefferiesOct 11 · prior May 14

$45.00 → $75.00+66.7%

BNP ParibasOct 8

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$44.00$88.00

5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grows at least 18% YoY to $2.05BPublished status: Under Pressure
Non-GAAP operating margin remains near 29%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue grows at least 17% YoY to ~$2.33BRevenue: $554.548M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dynatrace outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

DT is a growth-oriented technology business with improving profitability and cash generation. Its multi-year view is intact, though elevated risk and volatile management make this a more execution-sensitive thesis than a steady compounder.

What's priced into Dynatrace

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.57 premium, and the evidence points to a small expectations gap. The market appears to recognize the improving business quality, while the low fragility reading suggests the priced-in case is not especially vulnerable to a near-term shock.

What the fundamentals likely do

In recent quarters, revenue and ARR increased, GAAP operating income improved, and operating cash flow and free cash flow margin rose sharply. Management has kept growth, profitability, and cash generation as priorities, with evidence that each is on track; near-term miss risk is described as low, though industry peers have missed and DT has a deep miss in its recent history.

What Dynatrace hinges on

The central risk is a guidance reversal after the recent increase, which could damage management credibility. Over the multi-year view, continued growth in cloud-native and AI workloads alongside stronger margins and cash generation would support the thesis. Rate cuts and strong results or guidance from technology peers could help the sector backdrop, but those factors are less specific to DT.