Reading DSGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DSGR free→Reading DSGR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DSGR free→NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact DSGR's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 DSGR trades at 24× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $32 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 12.48x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.41 (-4.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$279.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,194.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows demand trends. These trends can impact Distribution Solutions Group's performance. Strong sales can increase confidence.
Confirms:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DSGR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DSGR Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | fair | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income increased to $13.63M in 2026-Q1 from $7.72M in 2025-Q4, showing progress in cost management and efficiency improvements. The trajectory indicates delivering on this priority.
“Operating income increased to $13.63M.”
“Operating income was $7.72M.”
“Operating income was $23.62M.”
Aim to increase gross profit through strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit rose to $163.34M in 2026-Q1 from $157.65M in 2025-Q4, indicating progress in strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
Focus on revenue growth through market expansion and customer acquisition.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased to $495.99M in 2026-Q1 from $481.60M in 2025-Q4, reflecting growth through market expansion and customer acquisition. The trajectory indicates delivering on this priority.
Why it matters: GDP data will show the health of the economy. Strong GDP growth can boost demand for Distribution Solutions Group's services.
Confirms:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth is reported below 0% for Q1 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026 , Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter 2025 results. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On December 18, 2025, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Amended and Restated Credit Agreement ”), which amended and restated that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of April 1, 2022 (the “ Original Credit Agreement ”), by and among the Company, the other loan parties…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Regulation FD Disclosure. On December 22, 2025, the Company issued a press release announcing the entry into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subjec…
“Gross profit rose to $163.34M.”
“Gross profit was $157.65M.”
“Gross profit was $170.33M.”
“Revenue increased to $495.99M.”
“Revenue was $481.60M.”
“Revenue was $517.96M.”