Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$34.750.00%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
DSGR grows revenue to about $2.06B in 2026. Profit rises with operating income near $13.6M. Gross profit improves to $163M. The company controls costs well.
Revenue growth may slow below 5%. Profit gains could stall or reverse. Cost control might weaken.
The price is near our fair value of $27. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: Gross profit falls below $157M in future quarters
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $7.7M in future quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving revenue and profitability. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent financial performance has improved but remains sensitive to sector trends.
The market appears to have priced in a stretched valuation compared to peers, with expectations for continued growth. There is a moderate expectations gap, indicating that investors anticipate some level of ongoing improvement.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue and improve profitability, as evidenced by recent financial results. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, which could impact investor sentiment.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support DSGR's growth; conversely, any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.06B in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, DSGR's performance will depend on its ability to maintain momentum in a challenging sector. Not investment advice.