Reading DLX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DLX free→Reading DLX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DLX free→NYSEIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $23.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 DLX trades at 6× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $91 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 75% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.04 → $0.81 (-21.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,900.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company can make cash for growth.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $200 million for 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $200 million for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DLX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. Section 9 - Financial Statements and Exhibits
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DLX Deluxe Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NVT nVent Electric plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve approximately $200 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
The company has set a revenue guidance range of $1.985 to $2.050 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
The company has provided an adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.60 to $4.00 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims show how the economy is doing. A rise can hurt spending and affect Deluxe's revenue.
Confirms:Weekly claims drop below 200,000, indicating a strong job market.
Disproves:Weekly claims go over 300,000, showing weakness in the economy.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if the company can maintain its growth after Q1 results.
Confirms one read:Management confirms Q2 revenue guidance of $1.985 to $2.050 billion.
Confirms the other:Management cuts Q2 revenue guidance to less than $1.985 billion.
Why it matters: This range shows the company's earnings growth and how well it operates.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EPS reported at or above $3.60 for 2026.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EPS reported below $3.60 for 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Deluxe's performance. This could signal a positive trend for the company.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to nearly 10% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to below 5% each year.
Why it matters: Key economic reports could change Deluxe's outlook. They may also affect growth expectations.
Confirms one read:Good economic signs on June 17 can make the growth outlook better.
Confirms the other:Bad economic signs on June 17 can lead to a careful outlook.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Deluxe Corporation (the “Company”) has confirmed that Cheryl E. Mayberry McKissack notified the Board on March 4, 2026, that she will not stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant h…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 10, 2026, Deluxe Corporation (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries (“Seller Entities”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) by and between the Seller Entities, the Company, PFG-SG Operating Group LLC (“Purchaser”), and PFG Ventures, L.P. (“Purchaser Parent”). Subject to the terms and conditions of the Purchase Agreement, on the closing date (the “Closing Date”), Purchaser will acquire the right, t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, the Company posted the Amended Earnings Release to the Investor Relations section of its website, as described in the Explanatory Note above. The full text of the Amended Earnings Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this