Dropbox (DBX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
$36.25-0.14%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put DBX beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Application Software is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 0% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 4%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 29% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskDBX’s case rests on steady earnings and a relatively high earnings yield, despite nearly flat revenue growth. The latest quarter beat earnings expectations, but revenue grew only 0.9% year over year. DBX trades at 14× P/E versus a 30× peer median. Expectations look modest compared with our view, though weak execution quality adds fragility. Workforce cuts and the CTO’s departure threaten alignment and leadership stability. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 30%. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades; our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. DBX is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering DBX (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare DBX with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DBX Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Application Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put DBX next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Align workforce and investment with product and growth priorities
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
9% layoffs and CTO departure disrupt workforce alignment; severance and visa support add restructuring costs.
Maintain disciplined operating margin and cost management
Reported workforce reduction may support cost discipline; no margin impact is specified.
Threatens: Leadership transition and strengthening executive team
CTO departure adds leadership uncertainty alongside workforce reductions, challenging executive-team stability.
Advances: Maintain disciplined operating margin and cost management
Cost cuts support margin discipline; expected Q3 results meeting or beating expectations temper growth concerns.
Concerns over share repurchase program and business sustainability.
Threatens: Drive revenue growth and expand paying user base
Revenue growth under 1% raises concerns about future performance.
Advances: Drive revenue growth and expand paying user base
Raising revenue guidance supports growth objectives.
Advances: Share repurchase program
Significant stock repurchase program enhances capital allocation.