Reading CTOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTOS free→Reading CTOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTOS free→NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. However, the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is elevated. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 CTOS trades at 1× p/s, in line with its 1× p/s peer median. Our $11 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$13. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted -15.98x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.01. 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 40.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$368.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,513.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is still loss-making. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing down. If growth re-accelerates, it could benefit Custom Truck One Source.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is picking up again and heading back to past highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down or staying the same.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Profitability concerns may hinder revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$11.00 – $13.00 (median $12.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTOS CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase 2026 revenue by 3% to 9% year-over-year.
Management increased the 2026 full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance range.
Management aims to maintain a positive earnings trajectory following recent earnings beats.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows more losses or a worse financial situation.
Increased price target reflects positive rental strength.
Guidance upgrade and earnings beat support revenue growth.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 10, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal year and quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 19, 2025, R. Todd Barrett informed Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign as the Chief Accounting Officer of the Company, effective January 16, 2026. Mr. Barrett’s resignation is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 27, 2025, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2025, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…