CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. (CTOS)

NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.06+2.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	581.94M
EPS	—	0.09
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.12B
EPS	—	0.135
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.24B
EPS	—	0.297

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance	They raised full-year EBITDA guidance.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA guidance is cut or not raised in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $415M - $440M in 2026-Q1 to $437.5M - $455M in 2026-Q2, supported by a 25% increase in Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026 versus Q2 2025. The trajectory is delivering with consistent upward revisions and strong segment EBITDA growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain positive earnings trajectory	A primary condition in CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is Earnings improve to positive trajectory in next quarters.	Improving	Earnings remain negative or worsen over next 4 quarters	Net income: $10.399M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Earnings improve to positive trajectory in next quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202610,399,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2d31fd33-87be-4de7-8de8-134c9b663973. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
2026 revenue grows 3% to 9% year-over-year	A primary condition in CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 9% YoY growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Revenue: $563.446M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 9% YoY growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Aug 3, 2026563,446,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2d31fd33-87be-4de7-8de8-134c9b663973. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$2.24B

$2.16B → $2.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,159,334,817	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,159,334,817	4 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,159,334,817	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,164,504,590	3 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,159,334,817	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,159,334,817	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,219,472,310	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,219,472,310	3 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,219,472,310	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,237,405,650	3 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,205,279,483	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$2,237,633,167	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$2,237,616,500	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$2,237,238,017	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	1	1
2026-06-01	5	1	1
2026-07-01	5	1	0
2026-08-01	5	1	0
2026-09-01	5	1	0
2026-10-01	5	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain positive earnings trajectoryNet income: $10.399M
2026 revenue grows 3% to 9% year-over-yearRevenue: $563.446M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CTOS is an execution-led industrial growth story, with improving operating results but elevated risk. Its recent signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, and the long-term thesis remains intact, though confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC.

The valuation is tagged as stretched and about 1.95 times the peer level, while the model confidence is low. The evidence points to expectations that include a re-rating, but does not specify exactly how much future improvement the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with its 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA priorities, supported by strong Q2 growth and raised guidance. Fleet utilization and rental revenue also improved, while recent earnings events were positive. Risk remains elevated: the sector is a headwind, the business is classified as loss-making, and a guidance cut after a recent raise would damage credibility.

What CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on CTOS sustaining growth and delivering on its raised guidance without a reversal. Sector conditions also matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance from the named industrial bellwethers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The evidence gives limited detail on valuation assumptions, so the expectations gap is uncertain.