Reading CMTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMTG free→Reading CMTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMTG free→NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is unassessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CMTG is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), so the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.67 CMTG trades at 2× p/s, in line with its 2× p/s peer median. Our $2.48 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.00x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.13 → $-0.13 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$282.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$615.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,734.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 38.5 points (from -100.0 to -61.5).
Signal changed from 'restrictive' to 'cautious'.
As of June 15, 2026, company momentum rose. The signal label changed to cautious.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects mortgage demand and Claros Mortgage Trust.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates. This leads to higher mortgage rates and may slow mortgage demand.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers rates or keeps them unchanged, supporting mortgage demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMTG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Amendment to Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. 2016 Incentive Award Plan On June 3, 2026, Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”). At the Annual Meeting, the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Company’s 2016 Incentive Award…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMTG Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | fair | high |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can affect company plans and results. Investors must know if this impacts work.
Confirms one read:New leaders or changes in plans announced within three months.
Confirms the other:No new leaders or plan changes announced in the same time.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could benefit Claros Mortgage Trust's performance.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
above, the Company issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and distributed certain supplemental information. The press release and supplemental financial information have also been posted in the investor relations/presentations section of the Company’s website at www.clarosmortgage.com . The information in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 6, 2026, Andrew Silberstein advised the Board of Directors (“Board”) of Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (“we,” “us,” “our,” or the “Company”) that he will be resigning from the Board, effective May 11, 2026. Mr. Silberstein was originally appointed to our Board pursuant to Almanac Realty Investors’, a business unit of NB Alternatives Advisers LL…
above, the Company issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and distributed certain supplemental information. The press release and supplemental financial information have also been posted in the investor relations/presentations section of the Company’s website at www.clarosmortgage.com . The information in this Item 7.01 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 5, Vincent Tese advised the Board of Directors (“Board”) of Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. (“we,” “us,” “our,” or “Company”) that he will not stand for re-election as a director of the Company at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) as a result of his decision to retire from the Board at the end of his current ter…