Reading CMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMRC free→Reading CMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMRC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If CMRC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.69 CMRC trades at 8× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $7.46 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.85x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.04 (-52.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,435.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth signals a weakening trend in the sector. This could hurt Commerce.com’s performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Commerce.com, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results as of and for the three months ended March 31, 2026. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. A copy of the press release issued May 7, 2026 is furnished herewith as Exh…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMRC Commerce.com, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve total revenue between $347.5 million and $369.5 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $86.8 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the full-year target of $347.5 million to $369.5 million. The trajectory shows limited progress as the quarterly revenue needs to increase to meet the annual target.
“For the full year 2026, we currently expect: Total revenue between $347.5 million and $369.5 million.”
“For the full year 2026, we currently expect: Total revenue between $347.5 million and $369.5 million.”
Achieve non-GAAP operating income between $34 million and $53 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was $5.8 million in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the full-year target of $34 million to $53 million. The trajectory shows limited progress as the quarterly income needs to increase to meet the annual target.
Implement a plan to realign the workforce to optimize operational costs and efficiencies across fiscal 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has committed to realigning its workforce to optimize costs, but there is limited progress visible in the financials. Operating income improved to $5.8 million in 2026-Q1 from a loss in 2025-Q4, but the impact of workforce realignment is not yet clear.
“The Company committed to a plan to realign the Company’s current workforce with the Company’s on-going cost structure.”
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims could indicate economic weakness. This may impact Commerce.com’s sales.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than in previous weeks.
Disproves:Unemployment claims are going down or staying the same.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth under “
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On April 13, 2026, Commerce.com, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into a Rights Agreement between the Company and Equiniti Trust Company, LLC as Rights Agent (as amended from time to time, the “ Rights Agreement ”) that was previously approved by the Board of Directors of the Company. In connection with the Rights Agreement, a dividend was declared of one preferred stock purchase right (individually, a “ Right ” and collectively, the “ Rights…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Commerce.com, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. The press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the Company, and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. A copy of the press release issued February 12, 2026 is fu…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 1, 2026, Daniel Lentz, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, was appointed to the additional role of Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Lentz will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, which position he has held since July 2023. There will be no change in Mr. Lentz’s current compensation as a result of his assumption of…
“For the full year 2026, we currently expect: Non-GAAP operating income between $34 million and $53 million.”
“For the full year 2026, we currently expect: Non-GAAP operating income between $34 million and $53 million.”