Commerce.com, Inc. (CMRC)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.56-3.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Commerce.com, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$82.5M–$85.5M	—
Operating income	$3.3M–$5.3Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	84.67M
EPS	—	0.073
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$336.5M–$344.5M	339.52M
EPS	—	0.319
Operating income	$28M–$34Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	340.22M
EPS	—	0.628

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve non-GAAP operating income between $34M and $53M in 2026	A primary condition in Commerce.com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $34 million.	Broken	Operating income falls below $34 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve total revenue between $347.5M and $369.5M in 2026	A primary condition in Commerce.com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$358.5 million.	Broken	Annual revenue falls below $347.5 million in 2026	Revenue: $84.511M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$358.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202684,511,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d61eb305-1771-4a3f-b462-76f8de74a6c1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Implement workforce realignment to optimize costs in 2026	The company is realigning its workforce to cut costs.	Intact	Failure to execute workforce realignment plan by end of 2026	Plan committed Sep 2026 vs FY26 target Sep 2026 filing details workforce realignment plan to align staff with cost structure, estimating $4.2M-$8.8M in exit costs. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.47 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.37B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.47	$372,108,060	6 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.44	$352,691,910	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.44	$352,691,910	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.44	$352,691,910	5 / 7
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	4	2
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	2	4	1
2026-08-01	2	5	1
2026-09-01	1	5	1
2026-10-01	1	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve non-GAAP operating income between $34M and $53M in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve total revenue between $347.5M and $369.5M in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Commerce.com, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk software turnaround and profitability-improvement story, not yet a proven growth compounder. The multi-year view is intact, and recent signals have turned mildly favorable, but the company remains loss-making on the evidence provided.

What's priced into Commerce.com, Inc.

CMRC is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has only medium confidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, while the evidence does not show that a large premium is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and ARR look broadly stable, while non-GAAP operating income has improved and full-year guidance was raised. Cost savings are expected to support further profitability progress, but AI-related investments have not yet been tied to specific financial milestones. Risk remains high, with smaller-company size and recent peer misses adding uncertainty around execution.

What Commerce.com, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth and ARR while delivering its profitability plan and planned cost savings. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the setup, while easing interest rates or continued strength from sector bellwethers such as SAP, CRM, and NOW could support the broader backdrop.